What is the current TMUS expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 7.88% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $168.34 to $197.16 from the current $182.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TMUS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $195.88B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 75,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.33 to the broader market. T-Mobile US, Inc. Led by Srinivasan Gopalan, public since 2007-04-19.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $182.75
Expected Move: 7.9%
Implied High: $197.16
Implied Low: $168.34
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 7.88%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $168.34 to $197.16 from the current $182.75. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TMUS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With T-Mobile US, Inc. pricing an expected move of 7.88% from $182.75, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TMUS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.88%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $168.34 to $197.16. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TMUS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TMUS term-structure is in contango (slope 0.003), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing TMUS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TMUS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.32 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TMUS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $182.75 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	26.7%	3.7%	$189.51	$175.99
Aug 28, 2026	14	28.3%	5.5%	$192.88	$172.62
Sep 4, 2026	21	27.6%	6.6%	$194.85	$170.65
Sep 11, 2026	28	27.4%	7.6%	$196.62	$168.88
Sep 18, 2026	35	27.7%	8.6%	$198.43	$167.07
Sep 25, 2026	42	27.7%	9.4%	$199.92	$165.58
Oct 2, 2026	49	27.9%	10.2%	$201.43	$164.07
Oct 16, 2026	63	29.3%	12.2%	$205.00	$160.50
Nov 20, 2026	98	32.1%	16.6%	$213.15	$152.35
Dec 18, 2026	126	31.6%	18.6%	$216.68	$148.82
Jan 15, 2027	154	31.0%	20.1%	$219.55	$145.95
Feb 19, 2027	189	31.6%	22.7%	$224.31	$141.19
Mar 19, 2027	217	31.4%	24.2%	$227.00	$138.50
Jun 17, 2027	307	31.6%	29.0%	$235.71	$129.79
Jan 21, 2028	525	31.6%	37.9%	$252.01	$113.49
Jun 16, 2028	672	32.2%	43.7%	$262.60	$102.90
Dec 15, 2028	854	32.2%	49.3%	$272.76	$92.74

Frequently asked TMUS expected move questions

What is the current TMUS expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 7.88% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $168.34 to $197.16 from the current $182.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TMUS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.