What is the current TMUS expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 11.08% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $149.01 to $186.13 from the current $167.57. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TMUS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $197.70B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 70,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.30 to the broader market. T-Mobile US, Inc. Led by Srinivasan Gopalan, public since 2007-04-19.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $167.57
Expected Move: 11.1%
Implied High: $186.13
Implied Low: $149.01
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 11.08%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $149.01 to $186.13 from the current $167.57. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TMUS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With T-Mobile US, Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.08% from $167.57, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TMUS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.08%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $149.01 to $186.13. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TMUS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TMUS term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.009), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 91.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical TMUS trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing TMUS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TMUS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.35 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TMUS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $167.57 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	39.4%	2.9%	$172.46	$162.68
Jul 10, 2026	10	33.2%	5.5%	$176.78	$158.36
Jul 17, 2026	17	33.4%	7.2%	$179.65	$155.49
Jul 24, 2026	24	40.4%	10.4%	$184.93	$150.21
Jul 31, 2026	31	38.4%	11.2%	$186.32	$148.82
Aug 7, 2026	38	37.5%	12.1%	$187.85	$147.29
Aug 21, 2026	52	35.9%	13.6%	$190.28	$144.86
Sep 18, 2026	80	34.9%	16.3%	$194.95	$140.19
Nov 20, 2026	143	34.6%	21.7%	$203.86	$131.28
Dec 18, 2026	171	33.8%	23.1%	$206.34	$128.80
Jan 15, 2027	199	33.2%	24.5%	$208.65	$126.49
Feb 19, 2027	234	33.3%	26.7%	$212.25	$122.89
Mar 19, 2027	262	33.2%	28.1%	$214.70	$120.44
Jun 17, 2027	352	32.8%	32.2%	$221.55	$113.59
Jan 21, 2028	570	31.8%	39.7%	$234.16	$100.98
Jun 16, 2028	717	32.4%	45.4%	$243.66	$91.48
Dec 15, 2028	899	32.7%	51.3%	$253.57	$81.57

Frequently asked TMUS expected move questions

What is the current TMUS expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 11.08% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $149.01 to $186.13 from the current $167.57. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TMUS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.