T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $205.92B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 70,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.32 to the broader market. T-Mobile US, Inc. Led by Srinivasan Gopalan, public since 2007-04-19.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $185.34
- Expected Move
- 8.3%
- Implied High
- $200.77
- Implied Low
- $169.91
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 8.32%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $169.91 to $200.77 from the current $185.34. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
TMUS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With T-Mobile US, Inc. pricing an expected move of 8.32% from $185.34, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for TMUS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $185.34 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 26.7% | 3.7% | $192.19 | $178.49 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 28.0% | 5.5% | $195.50 | $175.18 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 28.0% | 6.7% | $197.79 | $172.89 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 29.0% | 8.0% | $200.23 | $170.45 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 29.1% | 8.9% | $201.80 | $168.88 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 28.7% | 9.7% | $203.38 | $167.30 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 29.0% | 12.0% | $207.67 | $163.01 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 31.4% | 16.3% | $215.50 | $155.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 31.2% | 18.3% | $219.32 | $151.36 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 32.0% | 23.0% | $228.02 | $142.66 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 31.6% | 24.4% | $230.50 | $140.18 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 31.9% | 26.1% | $233.78 | $136.90 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 31.5% | 28.9% | $238.97 | $131.71 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 31.5% | 32.9% | $246.30 | $124.38 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 30.6% | 39.8% | $259.02 | $111.66 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 763 | 30.9% | 44.7% | $268.14 | $102.54 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 31.1% | 50.0% | $278.09 | $92.59 |
Frequently asked TMUS expected move questions
- What is the current TMUS expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 8.32% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $169.91 to $200.77 from the current $185.34. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is TMUS expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.