What is the current TMUS expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 11.01% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $140.14 to $174.82 from the current $157.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TMUS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Telecommunications Services industry, with a market capitalization near $169.26B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 75,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.32 to the broader market. T-Mobile US, Inc. Led by Srinivasan Gopalan, public since 2007-04-19.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $157.48
Expected Move: 11.0%
Implied High: $174.82
Implied Low: $140.14
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 11.01%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $140.14 to $174.82 from the current $157.48. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TMUS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With T-Mobile US, Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.01% from $157.48, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TMUS implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.01%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $140.14 to $174.82. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TMUS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TMUS term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.009), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 79.9% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical TMUS trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing TMUS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TMUS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.70 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TMUS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $157.48 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	37.8%	2.8%	$161.89	$153.07
Oct 23, 2026	9	33.7%	5.3%	$165.81	$149.15
Oct 30, 2026	16	43.9%	9.2%	$171.95	$143.01
Nov 6, 2026	23	40.9%	10.3%	$173.65	$141.31
Nov 13, 2026	30	38.4%	11.0%	$174.82	$140.14
Nov 20, 2026	37	37.5%	11.9%	$176.28	$138.68
Nov 27, 2026	44	37.5%	13.0%	$177.98	$136.98
Dec 18, 2026	65	35.2%	14.9%	$180.87	$134.09
Jan 15, 2027	93	33.9%	17.1%	$184.43	$130.53
Feb 19, 2027	128	35.1%	20.8%	$190.21	$124.75
Mar 19, 2027	156	35.5%	23.2%	$194.03	$120.93
May 21, 2027	219	35.5%	27.5%	$200.78	$114.18
Jun 17, 2027	246	35.2%	28.9%	$202.99	$111.97
Sep 17, 2027	338	35.0%	33.7%	$210.52	$104.44
Jan 21, 2028	464	35.0%	39.5%	$219.62	$95.34
Jun 16, 2028	611	34.8%	45.0%	$228.39	$86.57
Dec 15, 2028	793	35.0%	51.6%	$238.72	$76.24
Jan 19, 2029	828	34.9%	52.6%	$240.26	$74.70

Frequently asked TMUS expected move questions

What is the current TMUS expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has an expected move of 11.01% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $140.14 to $174.82 from the current $157.48. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TMUS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TMUS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.