Is TKO options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Oct 14, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) ATM IV is 38.8% against 20-day realized volatility of 24.6%. IV rank is 54.0%. TKO options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 14.2 vol points.

What is the TKO variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. TKO is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does TKO IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. TKO's current rank of 54.0% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Entertainment industry, with a market capitalization near $12.60B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 4,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.69 to the broader market. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Led by Ariel Zev Emanuel, public since 2023-09-12.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $172.63
ATM IV: 38.8%
HV 20-Day: 24.6%
HV 60-Day: 28.8%
IV Rank: 54.0%
IV Percentile: 75.0%

As of Oct 14, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) ATM implied volatility is 38.8%. 20-day realized volatility is 24.6%, producing an IV-HV spread of +14.2 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 54.0%.

How TKO iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on TKO Group Holdings, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 38.8% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the TKO IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart below tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 38.8%, 54.0% IV rank, against 24.6% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 14.2 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

TKO IV/HV regimes and trade selection

TKO IV rank at 54.0% sits mid-range - no structural edge from rank alone. Strategy choice should follow event calendar and the dealer-positioning read.

Using TKO vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.038) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

TKO IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. TKO's 54.0% IV rank places the ticker in the mid-range of its 1-year window - no strong cycle-position signal. The ratio of HV-20 (24.6%) to HV-60 (28.8%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series below to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for TKO over the last ~31 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Oct 14, 2026	38.8%	24.6%	28.8%	54.0%
Oct 13, 2026	39.2%	25.5%	28.8%	55.5%
Oct 12, 2026	37.8%	26.4%	28.9%	50.3%
Oct 9, 2026	33.4%	27.5%	28.5%	34.0%
Oct 8, 2026	34.5%	26.9%	28.3%	38.1%
Oct 7, 2026	34.7%	26.5%	28.3%	38.9%
Oct 6, 2026	34.4%	26.1%	28.2%	37.7%
Oct 5, 2026	34.9%	30.8%	28.2%	39.6%
Oct 2, 2026	34.4%	30.6%	28.6%	37.7%
Oct 1, 2026	33.0%	30.7%	28.8%	32.6%
Sep 30, 2026	35.2%	32.8%	28.4%	40.7%
Sep 29, 2026	34.8%	32.0%	29.3%	39.2%
Sep 28, 2026	34.6%	31.2%	29.0%	38.5%
Sep 25, 2026	32.8%	31.1%	29.9%	31.8%
Sep 24, 2026	34.1%	31.7%	30.0%	36.6%

Frequently asked TKO iv/hv history questions

Is TKO options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Oct 14, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) ATM IV is 38.8% against 20-day realized volatility of 24.6%. IV rank is 54.0%. TKO options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 14.2 vol points.
What is the TKO variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. TKO is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does TKO IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. TKO's current rank of 54.0% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.