STUB Butterfly Strategy
STUB (StubHub Holdings, Inc.), in the Technology sector, (Software - Application industry), listed on NYSE.
StubHub is a leading global platform for secondary ticket sales for live events, facilitating millions of tickets for sports, concerts, theater, and more across over 200 countries. Founded in 2000, it enables buyers and sellers to connect and transact tickets through its online marketplace, earning primarily through transaction fees. The platform supports various event types and offers a digital marketplace for ticket resale.
STUB (StubHub Holdings, Inc.) trades in the Technology sector, specifically Software - Application, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.50B, a beta of 3.59 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 5.74-27.89, average daily share volume of 4.3M, a public-listing history dating back to 2025, approximately 918 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how STUB stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 3.59 indicates STUB has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position.
What is a butterfly on STUB?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current STUB snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $8.88, ATM IV 71.95%, IV rank 0.00%, expected move 20.63%. The butterfly on STUB below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 28-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on STUB specifically: STUB IV at 71.95% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a STUB butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 20.63% (roughly $1.83 on the underlying). The 28-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated STUB expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on STUB should anchor to the underlying notional of $8.88 per share and to the trader's directional view on STUB stock.
STUB butterfly setup
The STUB butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With STUB near $8.88, the first option leg uses a $8.50 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed STUB chain at a 28-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 STUB shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $8.50 | $0.90 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $9.00 | $0.63 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $9.50 | $0.45 |
STUB butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$10.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $38.12
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$10.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $8.60
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 3.812
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
STUB butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on STUB. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -99.9% | -$10.00 |
| $1.97 | -77.8% | -$10.00 |
| $3.93 | -55.7% | -$10.00 |
| $5.90 | -33.6% | -$10.00 |
| $7.86 | -11.5% | -$10.00 |
| $9.82 | +10.6% | -$10.00 |
| $11.78 | +32.7% | -$10.00 |
| $13.75 | +54.8% | -$10.00 |
| $15.71 | +76.9% | -$10.00 |
| $17.67 | +99.0% | -$10.00 |
When traders use butterfly on STUB
Butterflies on STUB are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect STUB to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
STUB thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for STUB extends from approximately $7.05 on the downside to $10.71 on the upside. A STUB long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if STUB settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current STUB IV rank near 0.00% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on STUB at 71.95%. As a Technology name, STUB options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to STUB-specific events.
STUB butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. STUB positions also carry Technology sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move STUB alongside the broader basket even when STUB-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current STUB chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on STUB?
- A butterfly on STUB is the butterfly strategy applied to STUB (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With STUB stock trading near $8.88, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed STUB chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are STUB butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the STUB butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 71.95%), the computed maximum profit is $38.12 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$10.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a STUB butterfly?
- The breakeven for the STUB butterfly priced on this page is roughly $8.60 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current STUB market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 20.63%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on STUB?
- Butterflies on STUB are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect STUB to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current STUB implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- STUB ATM IV is at 71.95% with IV rank near 0.00%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.