S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Regional industry, with a market capitalization near $1.57B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 1,206 people, carrying a beta of 0.85 to the broader market. S&T Bancorp, Inc. Led by Christopher J. McComish, public since 1992-04-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $43.44
- Expected Move
- 14.9%
- Implied High
- $49.90
- Implied Low
- $36.98
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) has an expected move of 14.88%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $36.98 to $49.90 from the current $43.44. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
STBA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With S&T Bancorp, Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.88% from $43.44, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for STBA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $43.44 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 51.9% | 15.8% | $50.32 | $36.56 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 34.6% | 14.4% | $49.68 | $37.20 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 27.6% | 17.9% | $51.23 | $35.65 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 27.0% | 22.1% | $53.05 | $33.83 |
Frequently asked STBA expected move questions
- What is the current STBA expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA) has an expected move of 14.88% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $36.98 to $49.90 from the current $43.44. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the STBA expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is STBA expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.