S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges industry, with a market capitalization near $120.34B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 42,350 people, carrying a beta of 1.10 to the broader market. S&P Global Inc. Led by Martina L. Cheung, public since 2016-04-28.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $402.39
- Expected Move
- 8.5%
- Implied High
- $436.49
- Implied Low
- $368.29
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) has an expected move of 8.48%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $368.29 to $436.49 from the current $402.39. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SPGI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With S&P Global Inc. pricing an expected move of 8.48% from $402.39, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SPGI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $402.39 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 29.6% | 4.1% | $418.88 | $385.90 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 30.4% | 6.0% | $426.35 | $378.43 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 30.1% | 7.2% | $431.44 | $373.34 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 29.9% | 8.3% | $435.71 | $369.07 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 29.0% | 8.9% | $438.01 | $366.77 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 30.1% | 10.2% | $443.48 | $361.30 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 29.9% | 12.4% | $452.38 | $352.40 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 31.5% | 16.3% | $468.07 | $336.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 31.3% | 18.4% | $476.39 | $328.39 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 31.4% | 20.4% | $484.46 | $320.32 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 32.1% | 23.1% | $495.34 | $309.44 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 32.0% | 24.7% | $501.67 | $303.11 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 32.3% | 26.5% | $508.87 | $295.91 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 31.8% | 29.2% | $519.93 | $284.85 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 31.8% | 40.1% | $563.83 | $240.95 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 31.6% | 41.1% | $567.58 | $237.20 |
Frequently asked SPGI expected move questions
- What is the current SPGI expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) has an expected move of 8.48% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $368.29 to $436.49 from the current $402.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SPGI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SPGI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.