Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $293.8M, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 744 people, carrying a beta of 2.71 to the broader market. Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Led by Michael A. Colglazier, public since 2017-09-29.
Snapshot as of Jun 12, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $3.92
- Expected Move
- 45.2%
- Implied High
- $5.69
- Implied Low
- $2.15
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Jun 12, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) has an expected move of 45.19%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $2.15 to $5.69 from the current $3.92. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SPCE Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. pricing an expected move of 45.19% from $3.92, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the SPCE implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 45.19%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $2.15 to $5.69. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
SPCE expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. SPCE term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.051), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 27.5%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical SPCE range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.
Sizing SPCE structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. SPCE put/call volume ratio currently at 0.74 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SPCE derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $3.92 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 6 | 179.2% | 23.0% | $4.82 | $3.02 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 14 | 176.7% | 34.6% | $5.28 | $2.56 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 20 | 171.9% | 40.2% | $5.50 | $2.34 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 28 | 159.3% | 44.1% | $5.65 | $2.19 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 35 | 154.2% | 47.7% | $5.79 | $2.05 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 42 | 163.8% | 55.6% | $6.10 | $1.74 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 49 | 161.9% | 59.3% | $6.25 | $1.59 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 126 | 140.4% | 82.5% | $7.15 | $0.69 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 217 | 133.9% | 103.2% | $7.97 | $-0.13 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 588 | 121.6% | 154.3% | $9.97 | $-2.13 |
Frequently asked SPCE expected move questions
- What is the current SPCE expected move?
- As of Jun 12, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) has an expected move of 45.19% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $2.15 to $5.69 from the current $3.92. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SPCE expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SPCE expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.