SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (SMX) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (SMX) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Specialty Business Services industry, with a market capitalization near $1.0M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 17 people, carrying a beta of -2.78 to the broader market. SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company provides brand protection, authentication and track and trace technology for the anti-counterfeit market. Led by Haggai Alon, public since 2021-12-09.

Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$9.38

Expected Move

85.4%

Implied High

$17.39

Implied Low

$1.37

Front DTE

98 days

As of May 15, 2026, SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (SMX) has an expected move of 85.41%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $1.37 to $17.39 from the current $9.38. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SMX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company pricing an expected move of 85.41% from $9.38, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for SMX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $9.38 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked SMX expected move questions

What is the current SMX expected move?

As of May 15, 2026, SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (SMX) has an expected move of 85.41% over the next 98 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $1.37 to $17.39 from the current $9.38. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SMX expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SMX expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.