SIRI Butterfly Strategy
SIRI (Sirius XM Holdings Inc.), in the Communication Services sector, (Broadcasting industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news channels, as well as podcast and infotainment services on subscription fee basis; and live, curated, and exclusive and on demand programming services through satellite radio systems and streamed through applications for mobile and home devices, and other consumer electronic equipment. This segment also distributes satellite radios through automakers and retailers, as well as its website; offers advertising other ancillary services; sells radios and accessories; and offers location-based services through two-way wireless connectivity, including safety, security, convenience, maintenance and data, remote vehicles diagnostic, and stolen or parked vehicle locator services, as well as data services related to graphical weather and fuel prices. In addition, this segment provides music channels on the DISH Network satellite television service as a programming package; Travel Link, a suite of data services that include graphical weather, fuel prices, sports schedule and scores, and movie listings; graphic information related to road closings, traffic flow, and incident data for consumers with in-vehicle navigation systems; real-time weather services in vehicles, boats, and planes; music programming and commercial-free music services for office, restaurants, and other business; and wireless communications service. The Pandora and Off-platform segment operates music, comedy, and podcast streaming platform, which offers personalized experience for listener through mobile devices, vehicle speakers, and connected devices; and provides advertising services.
SIRI (Sirius XM Holdings Inc.) trades in the Communication Services sector, specifically Broadcasting, with a market capitalization of approximately $9.54B, a trailing P/E of 11.26, a beta of 0.96 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 19.77-30.11, average daily share volume of 5.7M, a public-listing history dating back to 1994, approximately 5K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how SIRI stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 0.96 places SIRI roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline. The trailing P/E of 11.26 is on the value side, where IV often compresses outside event windows because forward growth expectations are already discounted into the share price. SIRI pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a butterfly on SIRI?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current SIRI snapshot
As of June 30, 2026, spot at $29.64, ATM IV 36.42%, IV rank 16.88%, expected move 10.44%. The butterfly on SIRI below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 31-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on SIRI specifically: SIRI IV at 36.42% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a SIRI butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 10.44% (roughly $3.09 on the underlying). The 31-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated SIRI expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on SIRI should anchor to the underlying notional of $29.64 per share and to the trader's directional view on SIRI stock.
SIRI butterfly setup
The SIRI butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With SIRI near $29.64, the first option leg uses a $28.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed SIRI chain at a 31-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 SIRI shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $28.00 | $2.22 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $29.50 | $1.39 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $31.00 | $0.77 |
SIRI butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$20.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $129.61
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$20.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $28.20, $30.80
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 6.480
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
SIRI butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on SIRI. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | -$20.00 |
| $6.56 | -77.9% | -$20.00 |
| $13.11 | -55.8% | -$20.00 |
| $19.67 | -33.6% | -$20.00 |
| $26.22 | -11.5% | -$20.00 |
| $32.77 | +10.6% | -$20.00 |
| $39.32 | +32.7% | -$20.00 |
| $45.88 | +54.8% | -$20.00 |
| $52.43 | +76.9% | -$20.00 |
| $58.98 | +99.0% | -$20.00 |
When traders use butterfly on SIRI
Butterflies on SIRI are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SIRI to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
SIRI thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for SIRI extends from approximately $26.55 on the downside to $32.73 on the upside. A SIRI long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if SIRI settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current SIRI IV rank near 16.88% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on SIRI at 36.42%. As a Communication Services name, SIRI options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to SIRI-specific events.
SIRI butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. SIRI positions also carry Communication Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move SIRI alongside the broader basket even when SIRI-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current SIRI chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on SIRI?
- A butterfly on SIRI is the butterfly strategy applied to SIRI (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With SIRI stock trading near $29.64, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed SIRI chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are SIRI butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the SIRI butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 36.42%), the computed maximum profit is $129.61 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$20.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a SIRI butterfly?
- The breakeven for the SIRI butterfly priced on this page is roughly $28.20 and $30.80 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current SIRI market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 10.44%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on SIRI?
- Butterflies on SIRI are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SIRI to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current SIRI implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- SIRI ATM IV is at 36.42% with IV rank near 16.88%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.