The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Chemicals - Specialty industry, with a market capitalization near $75.55B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 63,890 people, carrying a beta of 1.16 to the broader market. The Sherwin-Williams Company develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells paints, coatings, and related products to professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers. Led by Heidi G. Petz, public since 1980-03-17.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $301.16
- Expected Move
- 7.9%
- Implied High
- $324.99
- Implied Low
- $277.33
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) has an expected move of 7.91%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $277.33 to $324.99 from the current $301.16. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SHW Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With The Sherwin-Williams Company pricing an expected move of 7.91% from $301.16, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SHW derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $301.16 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 27.6% | 8.4% | $326.53 | $275.79 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 27.6% | 11.5% | $335.69 | $266.63 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 29.8% | 15.4% | $347.66 | $254.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 28.6% | 16.8% | $351.77 | $250.55 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 28.8% | 22.2% | $368.04 | $234.28 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 28.7% | 23.5% | $371.97 | $230.35 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 29.6% | 27.2% | $383.05 | $219.27 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 29.6% | 38.5% | $416.97 | $185.35 |
Frequently asked SHW expected move questions
- What is the current SHW expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) has an expected move of 7.91% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $277.33 to $324.99 from the current $301.16. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SHW expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SHW expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.