SERA Butterfly Strategy
SERA (Sera Prognostics, Inc.), in the Healthcare sector, (Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. It is also developing a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
SERA (Sera Prognostics, Inc.) trades in the Healthcare sector, specifically Medical - Diagnostics & Research, with a market capitalization of approximately $60.7M, a beta of 0.93 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 1.37-4.09, average daily share volume of 57K, a public-listing history dating back to 2021, approximately 63 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how SERA stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 0.93 places SERA roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline.
What is a butterfly on SERA?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current SERA snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $1.76, ATM IV 234.40%, IV rank 50.44%, expected move 67.20%. The butterfly on SERA below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on SERA specifically: SERA IV at 234.40% is mid-range versus its 1-year history, so strategy selection should anchor more to the directional thesis than to the IV regime, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 67.20% (roughly $1.18 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated SERA expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on SERA should anchor to the underlying notional of $1.76 per share and to the trader's directional view on SERA stock.
SERA butterfly setup
The SERA butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With SERA near $1.76, the first option leg uses a $1.67 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed SERA chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 SERA shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $1.67 | N/A |
| Sell 2 | Call | $1.76 | N/A |
| Buy 1 | Call | $1.85 | N/A |
SERA butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- N/A
- Max Profit (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Max Loss (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Breakeven(s)
- None on modeled curve
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- N/A
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
SERA butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on SERA. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
When traders use butterfly on SERA
Butterflies on SERA are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SERA to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
SERA thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for SERA extends from approximately $0.58 on the downside to $2.94 on the upside. A SERA long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if SERA settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current SERA IV rank near 50.44% is mid-range against its 1-year distribution, so the IV signal is neutral; the butterfly thesis on SERA should anchor more to the directional view and the expected-move geometry. As a Healthcare name, SERA options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to SERA-specific events.
SERA butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. SERA positions also carry Healthcare sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move SERA alongside the broader basket even when SERA-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current SERA chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on SERA?
- A butterfly on SERA is the butterfly strategy applied to SERA (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With SERA stock trading near $1.76, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed SERA chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are SERA butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the SERA butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 234.40%), the computed maximum profit is unbounded per contract and the computed maximum loss is unbounded per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a SERA butterfly?
- The breakeven for the SERA butterfly priced on this page is no defined breakeven on the modeled curve at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current SERA market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 67.20%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on SERA?
- Butterflies on SERA are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SERA to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current SERA implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- SERA ATM IV is at 234.40% with IV rank near 50.44%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.