SAIA Butterfly Strategy
SAIA (Saia, Inc.), in the Industrials sector, (Trucking industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2006. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
SAIA (Saia, Inc.) trades in the Industrials sector, specifically Trucking, with a market capitalization of approximately $11.51B, a trailing P/E of 45.26, a beta of 2.12 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 248.37-460.05, average daily share volume of 516K, a public-listing history dating back to 2002, approximately 15K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how SAIA stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 2.12 indicates SAIA has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position. The trailing P/E of 45.26 is on the rich side, which tends to correlate with higher earnings-window IV expansion as the market debates whether forward growth supports the multiple.
What is a butterfly on SAIA?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current SAIA snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $462.45, ATM IV 49.90%, IV rank 20.59%, expected move 14.31%. The butterfly on SAIA below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on SAIA specifically: SAIA IV at 49.90% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a SAIA butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 14.31% (roughly $66.16 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated SAIA expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on SAIA should anchor to the underlying notional of $462.45 per share and to the trader's directional view on SAIA stock.
SAIA butterfly setup
The SAIA butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With SAIA near $462.45, the first option leg uses a $440.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed SAIA chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 SAIA shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $440.00 | $39.25 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $460.00 | $28.85 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $490.00 | $14.40 |
SAIA butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- +$405.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $2,391.88
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$595.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $484.05
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 4.020
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
SAIA butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on SAIA. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | +$405.00 |
| $102.26 | -77.9% | +$405.00 |
| $204.51 | -55.8% | +$405.00 |
| $306.76 | -33.7% | +$405.00 |
| $409.01 | -11.6% | +$405.00 |
| $511.26 | +10.6% | -$595.00 |
| $613.50 | +32.7% | -$595.00 |
| $715.75 | +54.8% | -$595.00 |
| $818.00 | +76.9% | -$595.00 |
| $920.25 | +99.0% | -$595.00 |
When traders use butterfly on SAIA
Butterflies on SAIA are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SAIA to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
SAIA thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for SAIA extends from approximately $396.29 on the downside to $528.61 on the upside. A SAIA long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if SAIA settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current SAIA IV rank near 20.59% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on SAIA at 49.90%. As a Industrials name, SAIA options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to SAIA-specific events.
SAIA butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. SAIA positions also carry Industrials sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move SAIA alongside the broader basket even when SAIA-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current SAIA chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on SAIA?
- A butterfly on SAIA is the butterfly strategy applied to SAIA (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With SAIA stock trading near $462.45, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed SAIA chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are SAIA butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the SAIA butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 49.90%), the computed maximum profit is $2,391.88 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$595.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a SAIA butterfly?
- The breakeven for the SAIA butterfly priced on this page is roughly $484.05 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current SAIA market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 14.31%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on SAIA?
- Butterflies on SAIA are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SAIA to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current SAIA implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- SAIA ATM IV is at 49.90% with IV rank near 20.59%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.