SentinelOne, Inc. (S) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
SentinelOne, Inc. (S) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $7.25B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 2,900 people, carrying a beta of 0.75 to the broader market. SentinelOne, Inc. Led by Tomer Weingarten, public since 2021-06-30.
Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $21.51
- Expected Move
- 15.3%
- Implied High
- $24.80
- Implied Low
- $18.22
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of Aug 28, 2026, SentinelOne, Inc. (S) has an expected move of 15.28%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.22 to $24.80 from the current $21.51. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
S Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With SentinelOne, Inc. pricing an expected move of 15.28% from $21.51, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the S implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 15.28%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $18.22 to $24.80. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
S expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. S term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.009), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.
Sizing S structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. S put/call volume ratio currently at 0.34 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for S derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $21.51 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 7 | 60.3% | 8.4% | $23.31 | $19.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 14 | 54.0% | 10.6% | $23.78 | $19.24 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21 | 54.1% | 13.0% | $24.30 | $18.72 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28 | 53.6% | 14.8% | $24.70 | $18.32 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 35 | 52.7% | 16.3% | $25.02 | $18.00 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 42 | 52.8% | 17.9% | $25.36 | $17.66 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 49 | 51.7% | 18.9% | $25.58 | $17.44 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 112 | 58.2% | 32.2% | $28.44 | $14.58 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 140 | 56.2% | 34.8% | $29.00 | $14.02 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 203 | 57.4% | 42.8% | $30.72 | $12.30 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 511 | 57.0% | 67.4% | $36.02 | $7.00 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 840 | 59.3% | 90.0% | $40.86 | $2.16 |
Frequently asked S expected move questions
- What is the current S expected move?
- As of Aug 28, 2026, SentinelOne, Inc. (S) has an expected move of 15.28% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.22 to $24.80 from the current $21.51. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the S expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is S expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.