What is the current S expected move?

As of Jul 15, 2026, SentinelOne, Inc. (S) has an expected move of 16.05% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $16.50 to $22.82 from the current $19.66. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the S expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is S expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

SentinelOne, Inc. (S) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

SentinelOne, Inc. (S) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Software - Infrastructure industry, with a market capitalization near $6.59B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 2,900 people, carrying a beta of 0.82 to the broader market. SentinelOne, Inc. Led by Tomer Weingarten, public since 2021-06-30.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $19.66
Expected Move: 16.1%
Implied High: $22.82
Implied Low: $16.50
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Jul 15, 2026, SentinelOne, Inc. (S) has an expected move of 16.05%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $16.50 to $22.82 from the current $19.66. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

S Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With SentinelOne, Inc. pricing an expected move of 16.05% from $19.66, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the S implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 16.05%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $16.50 to $22.82. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

S expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. S term-structure is in contango (slope 0.003), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing S structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. S put/call volume ratio currently at 0.07 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for S derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $19.66 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 17, 2026	2	74.9%	5.5%	$20.75	$18.57
Jul 24, 2026	9	59.4%	9.3%	$21.49	$17.83
Jul 31, 2026	16	57.6%	12.1%	$22.03	$17.29
Aug 7, 2026	23	57.5%	14.4%	$22.50	$16.82
Aug 14, 2026	30	56.0%	16.1%	$22.82	$16.50
Aug 21, 2026	37	56.3%	17.9%	$23.18	$16.14
Aug 28, 2026	44	63.7%	22.1%	$24.01	$15.31
Sep 18, 2026	65	63.8%	26.9%	$24.95	$14.37
Dec 18, 2026	156	61.1%	39.9%	$27.51	$11.81
Jan 15, 2027	184	60.9%	43.2%	$28.16	$11.16
Jan 21, 2028	555	59.6%	73.5%	$34.11	$5.21
Dec 15, 2028	884	58.9%	91.7%	$37.68	$1.64

Frequently asked S expected move questions

What is the current S expected move?: As of Jul 15, 2026, SentinelOne, Inc. (S) has an expected move of 16.05% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $16.50 to $22.82 from the current $19.66. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the S expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is S expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.