Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $319.3M, listed on NYSE, carrying a beta of 5.62 to the broader market. As a venture capital entity, Robinhood Ventures Fund I is dedicated to providing growth equity through direct investments. Led by Sarah Pinto, public since 2026-03-06.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price

$25.07

Expected Move

12.2%

Implied High

$28.12

Implied Low

$22.02

Front DTE

37 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) has an expected move of 12.18%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.02 to $28.12 from the current $25.07. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

RVI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Robinhood Ventures Fund I pricing an expected move of 12.18% from $25.07, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the RVI implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 12.18%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $22.02 to $28.12. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

RVI expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. RVI term-structure is in contango (slope 0.059), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 9.6%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical RVI range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing RVI structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. RVI put/call volume ratio currently at 1.25 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for RVI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.07 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.