What is the current RH expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Rh (RH) has an expected move of 17.32% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $100.82 to $143.06 from the current $121.94. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the RH expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is RH expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Rh (RH) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Rh (RH) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $2.30B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 6,870 people, carrying a beta of 1.86 to the broader market. RH, along with its various associated businesses, functions as a prominent retailer specializing in home furnishings. Led by Gary G. Friedman, public since 2012-11-02.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $121.94
Expected Move: 17.3%
Implied High: $143.06
Implied Low: $100.82
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Rh (RH) has an expected move of 17.32%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $100.82 to $143.06 from the current $121.94. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

RH Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Rh pricing an expected move of 17.32% from $121.94, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the RH implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 17.32%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $100.82 to $143.06. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

RH expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. RH term-structure is in contango (slope 0.004), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 14.5%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical RH range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing RH structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. RH put/call volume ratio currently at 1.51 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for RH derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $121.94 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	70.6%	5.2%	$128.31	$115.57
Oct 9, 2026	9	61.9%	9.7%	$133.79	$110.09
Oct 16, 2026	16	60.3%	12.6%	$137.33	$106.55
Oct 23, 2026	23	61.0%	15.3%	$140.61	$103.27
Oct 30, 2026	30	60.4%	17.3%	$143.06	$100.82
Nov 6, 2026	37	60.8%	19.4%	$145.55	$98.33
Nov 20, 2026	51	59.7%	22.3%	$149.15	$94.73
Dec 18, 2026	79	67.0%	31.2%	$159.95	$83.93
Jan 15, 2027	107	65.1%	35.2%	$164.92	$78.96
Feb 19, 2027	142	65.7%	41.0%	$171.91	$71.97
Mar 19, 2027	170	65.6%	44.8%	$176.53	$67.35
May 21, 2027	233	66.8%	53.4%	$187.02	$56.86
Jun 17, 2027	260	69.3%	58.5%	$193.26	$50.62
Sep 17, 2027	352	68.8%	67.6%	$204.33	$39.55
Jan 21, 2028	478	68.1%	77.9%	$216.97	$26.91
Dec 15, 2028	807	69.2%	102.9%	$247.41	$-3.53
Jan 19, 2029	842	69.2%	105.1%	$250.10	$-6.22

RH highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$65.00	Jan 19, 2029	725	104	73.4%	$12.50	$13.10

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked RH expected move questions

What is the current RH expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Rh (RH) has an expected move of 17.32% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $100.82 to $143.06 from the current $121.94. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the RH expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is RH expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.