REPL Butterfly Strategy

REPL (Replimune Group, Inc.), in the Healthcare sector, (Biotechnology industry), listed on NASDAQ.

Replimune Group, Inc. is a biotechnology enterprise dedicated to pioneering oncolytic immuno-gene therapies aimed at treating various cancers. The company leverages its proprietary Immunotherapy platform to engineer and advance novel therapeutic candidates designed to activate the body's immune system against malignant cells. Its leading experimental drug, RP1, is a selectively replicating variant of the herpes simplex virus 1. This candidate is presently in Phase I/II clinical trials for a range of solid tumors and has also progressed to Phase II trials specifically for patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. Replimune is additionally developing RP2, an anti-CTLA-4 antibody-like protein, which is undergoing Phase I clinical assessment. Its purpose is to counteract the immune system's suppression often mediated by CTLA-4.

REPL (Replimune Group, Inc.) trades in the Healthcare sector, specifically Biotechnology, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.28B, a beta of 0.90 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 1.5-15.67, average daily share volume of 7.3M, a public-listing history dating back to 2018, approximately 465 full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how REPL stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.

A beta of 0.90 places REPL roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline.

What is a butterfly on REPL?

A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.

REPL snapshot

As of August 14, 2026, spot at $14.88, ATM IV 78.74%, IV rank 12.81%, expected move 22.57%. The butterfly on REPL below is built from the August 14, 2026 end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 28-day expiry.

Why this butterfly structure on REPL specifically: REPL IV at 78.74% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a REPL butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 22.57% (roughly $3.36 on the underlying). The 28-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated REPL expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on REPL should anchor to the underlying notional of $14.88 per share and to the trader's directional view on REPL stock.

REPL butterfly setup

The REPL butterfly below is built from the August 14, 2026 end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With REPL at $14.88 on that close, the first option leg uses a $14.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed REPL chain at a 28-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 REPL shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).

ActionTypeStrike / BasisPremium (est)
Buy 1Call$14.00$2.13
Sell 2Call$15.00$1.25
Buy 1Call$16.00$0.83

REPL butterfly risk and reward

Net Premium / Debit
-$45.00
Max Profit (per contract)
$50.97
Max Loss (per contract)
-$45.00
Breakeven(s)
$14.45, $15.55
Risk / Reward Ratio
1.133

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.

REPL butterfly payoff curve

Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on REPL. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.

REPL butterfly profit and loss curve at expiration with breakevens and current spot markedREPL butterfly payoff at expiration-$40-$20$0$20$40$5$10$15$20$25Underlying Price ($)P&L at Expiration ($)BE $14.45BE $15.55Spot $14.88
P&L at expiration across the modeled underlying-price range. Green shading marks profitable regions, red shading marks loss regions. Dotted purple verticals mark breakevens; the solid dark vertical marks current spot.
Underlying Price% From SpotP&L at Expiration
$0.01-99.9%-$45.00
$3.30-77.8%-$45.00
$6.59-55.7%-$45.00
$9.88-33.6%-$45.00
$13.17-11.5%-$45.00
$16.45+10.6%-$45.00
$19.74+32.7%-$45.00
$23.03+54.8%-$45.00
$26.32+76.9%-$45.00
$29.61+99.0%-$45.00

When traders use butterfly on REPL

Butterflies on REPL are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect REPL to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.

REPL thesis for this butterfly

The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for REPL extends from approximately $11.52 on the downside to $18.24 on the upside. A REPL long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if REPL settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current REPL IV rank near 12.81% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on REPL at 78.74%. As a Healthcare name, REPL options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to REPL-specific events.

REPL butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. REPL positions also carry Healthcare sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move REPL alongside the broader basket even when REPL-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current REPL chain quotes before placing a trade.

Frequently asked questions

What is a butterfly on REPL?
A butterfly on REPL is the butterfly strategy applied to REPL (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With REPL stock at $14.88 on the August 14, 2026 close, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed REPL chain strike and the premiums come straight from that session's bid/ask midpoint.
How are REPL butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the REPL butterfly priced from the August 14, 2026 end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 78.74%), the computed maximum profit is $50.97 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$45.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
What is the breakeven for a REPL butterfly?
The breakeven for the REPL butterfly priced on this page is roughly $14.45 and $15.55 at expiration, derived from the August 14, 2026 end-of-day chain's premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The REPL market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move in the same options snapshot is approximately 22.57%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
When should you consider a butterfly on REPL?
Butterflies on REPL are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect REPL to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
How does current REPL implied volatility affect this butterfly?
REPL ATM IV is at 78.74% with IV rank near 12.81%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.

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