Redwire Corporation (RDW) Max Pain Analysis
Max pain is the strike price where aggregate option buyer payout is minimized at expiration. It represents the price at which option writers retain the most premium.
Redwire Corporation (RDW) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $1.72B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 750 people, carrying a beta of 2.42 to the broader market. Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. Led by Peter Anthony Cannito Jr., public since 2021-01-14.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $14.41
- Max Pain Strike
- $8.00
- Total OI
- 501.4K
As of May 15, 2026, Redwire Corporation (RDW) max pain sits at $8.00, which is below the current spot price of $14.41 (44.5% away). Spot sits 44.5% below max pain - the gap is wide enough that the pinning effect alone is unlikely to close it; expect catalyst flow, positioning unwinds, or rebalancing to drive the actual price path before any expiration pull. RDW is a low-priced underlying (spot $14.41), where $0.50 or finer strike spacing increases the number of viable pin candidates and dampens the dominant-strike effect. Total open interest across the listed chain (501.4K contracts) is healthy but not dominant; pinning effects can show but are not guaranteed. RDW is currently in positive dealer gamma ($2.3M), the regime that mechanically reinforces pinning by inducing dealers to buy weakness and sell strength near heavy-OI strikes. Max pain identifies the strike at which the aggregate dollar value of all outstanding options contracts would expire with the least total intrinsic value, a gravitational reference rather than a price target.
RDW Strategy Implications at the Current Max Pain Level
With spot 44.5% from the $8.00 max-pain level and Redwire Corporation in a positive-gamma regime, where dealer hedging mechanically pulls spot toward heavy-OI strikes, strategy selection turns on cycle position and dealer positioning. Iron condors and credit spreads centered near the max-pain strike capture the typical end-of-cycle convergence when the regime supports pinning; ratio backspreads or directional debit structures fit names where catalyst flow is likely to overwhelm the hedging-driven pull. The gamma-exposure page shows the per-strike dealer book that determines whether hedging will reinforce or fight the pin.
Learn how max pain is reported and how to read the data →
Frequently asked RDW max pain analysis questions
- What is the current RDW max pain strike?
- As of May 15, 2026, Redwire Corporation (RDW) max pain sits at $8.00, which is 44.5% below the current spot price of $14.41. Max pain identifies the strike at which aggregate option-buyer payouts at expiration are minimized; it is a gravitational reference, not a price target. A 44.5% gap is wide enough that the pinning effect alone is unlikely to close it; expect catalyst flow, positioning unwinds, or rebalancing to drive the price path before any expiration pull.
- Does RDW pin to its max pain strike at expiration?
- RDW is currently in positive dealer gamma, the regime that mechanically reinforces pinning. Dealers hedging long-gamma books buy weakness and sell strength near high-OI strikes, which pulls spot toward those levels into expiration. Total open interest across RDW (501.4K contracts) is one input to how plausible a clean pin is - heavier total OI concentrated at fewer strikes raises the probability; thin OI spread across many strikes lowers it. Pinning is strongest in heavily-traded names with large open-interest concentrations at high-OI strikes during the final week of an OPEX cycle. Whether RDW actually pins on a given expiration depends on the OI distribution, the dealer-gamma sign, and the absence of catalyst-driven moves that overwhelm hedging-driven flow.
- How is RDW max pain calculated?
- Max pain is computed by summing the dollar value of all in-the-money options at each candidate settlement strike across listed expirations, then selecting the strike that minimizes total intrinsic-value payout to option buyers. The calculation uses the full open-interest distribution and weighs both calls and puts. RDW put/call OI ratio is 0.46 - call-heavy, which biases the max-pain calculation toward strikes above current spot when the call OI concentrates there.