QXO Butterfly Strategy
QXO (QXO, Inc.), in the Industrials sector, (Industrial - Distribution industry), listed on NYSE.
QXO, Inc. is a publicly traded distributor of roofing, waterproofing and complementary building products in the United States. It plans to become tech-enabled in the building products distribution industry and generate outsized value for shareholders. The company was founded on October 3, 2002, and is headquartered in Greenwich, CT.
QXO (QXO, Inc.) trades in the Industrials sector, specifically Industrial - Distribution, with a market capitalization of approximately $12.90B, a beta of 2.20 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 14.75-27.61, average daily share volume of 16.4M, a public-listing history dating back to 2012, approximately 8K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how QXO stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 2.20 indicates QXO has historically moved more than the broader market, amplifying both the directional payoff and the realized volatility relative to an index-equivalent position. QXO pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a butterfly on QXO?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current QXO snapshot
As of June 30, 2026, spot at $16.76, ATM IV 67.88%, IV rank 100.00%, expected move 19.46%. The butterfly on QXO below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 31-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on QXO specifically: QXO IV at 67.88% is rich versus its 1-year range, which makes a premium-buying QXO butterfly relatively expensive in absolute-cost terms, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 19.46% (roughly $3.26 on the underlying). The 31-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated QXO expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on QXO should anchor to the underlying notional of $16.76 per share and to the trader's directional view on QXO stock.
QXO butterfly setup
The QXO butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With QXO near $16.76, the first option leg uses a $16.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed QXO chain at a 31-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 QXO shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $16.00 | $1.78 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $17.00 | $1.28 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $17.50 | $1.03 |
QXO butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$25.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $73.24
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$25.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $16.25
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 2.930
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
QXO butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on QXO. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -99.9% | -$25.00 |
| $3.71 | -77.8% | -$25.00 |
| $7.42 | -55.7% | -$25.00 |
| $11.12 | -33.6% | -$25.00 |
| $14.83 | -11.5% | -$25.00 |
| $18.53 | +10.6% | +$25.00 |
| $22.24 | +32.7% | +$25.00 |
| $25.94 | +54.8% | +$25.00 |
| $29.65 | +76.9% | +$25.00 |
| $33.35 | +99.0% | +$25.00 |
When traders use butterfly on QXO
Butterflies on QXO are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect QXO to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
QXO thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for QXO extends from approximately $13.50 on the downside to $20.02 on the upside. A QXO long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if QXO settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current QXO IV rank near 100.00% sits in the upper third of its 1-year distribution, which historically reverts; this raises the bar for premium-buying structures and lowers it for premium-selling structures on QXO at 67.88%. As a Industrials name, QXO options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to QXO-specific events.
QXO butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. QXO positions also carry Industrials sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move QXO alongside the broader basket even when QXO-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current QXO chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on QXO?
- A butterfly on QXO is the butterfly strategy applied to QXO (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With QXO stock trading near $16.76, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed QXO chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are QXO butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the QXO butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 67.88%), the computed maximum profit is $73.24 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$25.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a QXO butterfly?
- The breakeven for the QXO butterfly priced on this page is roughly $16.25 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current QXO market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 19.46%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on QXO?
- Butterflies on QXO are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect QXO to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current QXO implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- QXO ATM IV is at 67.88% with IV rank near 100.00%, which is elevated relative to its 1-year range. Premium-selling structures (covered call, cash-secured put, iron condor) generally look more attractive when IV rank is high; premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are more expensive in that regime.