What is the current QBTS expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) has an expected move of 20.79% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.18 to $20.10 from the current $16.64. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the QBTS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is QBTS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) operates in the Technology sector, specifically the Computer Hardware industry, with a market capitalization near $6.09B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 385 people, carrying a beta of 2.14 to the broader market. Operating globally, D-Wave Quantum Inc. Led by Alan E. Baratz, public since 2020-12-11.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $16.64
Expected Move: 20.8%
Implied High: $20.10
Implied Low: $13.18
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) has an expected move of 20.79%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $13.18 to $20.10 from the current $16.64. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

QBTS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With D-Wave Quantum Inc. pricing an expected move of 20.79% from $16.64, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the QBTS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 20.79%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $13.18 to $20.10. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

QBTS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. QBTS term-structure is in contango (slope 0.012), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 4.7%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical QBTS range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing QBTS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. QBTS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.27 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for QBTS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $16.64 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	77.9%	5.8%	$17.60	$15.68
Oct 9, 2026	9	69.1%	10.9%	$18.45	$14.83
Oct 16, 2026	16	69.5%	14.6%	$19.06	$14.22
Oct 23, 2026	23	69.8%	17.5%	$19.56	$13.72
Oct 30, 2026	30	72.5%	20.8%	$20.10	$13.18
Nov 6, 2026	37	73.7%	23.5%	$20.54	$12.74
Nov 20, 2026	51	77.9%	29.1%	$21.49	$11.79
Jan 15, 2027	107	75.0%	40.6%	$23.40	$9.88
Mar 19, 2027	170	77.2%	52.7%	$25.41	$7.87
Apr 16, 2027	198	77.3%	56.9%	$26.11	$7.17
Jan 21, 2028	478	78.6%	89.9%	$31.61	$1.67
Jan 19, 2029	842	79.0%	120.0%	$36.61	$-3.33

Frequently asked QBTS expected move questions

What is the current QBTS expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) has an expected move of 20.79% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.18 to $20.10 from the current $16.64. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the QBTS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is QBTS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.