Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically the Entertainment industry, with a market capitalization near $347.4M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 23,420 people, carrying a beta of 1.78 to the broader market. Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. Led by Tarun Lal, public since 2014-10-10.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $10.15
- Expected Move
- 28.3%
- Implied High
- $13.02
- Implied Low
- $7.28
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) has an expected move of 28.27%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $7.28 to $13.02 from the current $10.15. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
PLAY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. pricing an expected move of 28.27% from $10.15, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for PLAY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $10.15 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 98.6% | 30.1% | $13.20 | $7.10 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 89.1% | 37.0% | $13.91 | $6.39 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 86.8% | 56.4% | $15.87 | $4.43 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 84.8% | 69.5% | $17.20 | $3.10 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 83.2% | 105.0% | $20.80 | $-0.50 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 104.8% | 136.1% | $23.97 | $-3.67 |
Frequently asked PLAY expected move questions
- What is the current PLAY expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) has an expected move of 28.27% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $7.28 to $13.02 from the current $10.15. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the PLAY expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is PLAY expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.