Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Industrial - Machinery industry, with a market capitalization near $433.0M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 6,300 people, carrying a beta of 1.17 to the broader market. Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Led by Matthew V. Crawford, public since 1973-02-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $30.74
- Expected Move
- 25.5%
- Implied High
- $38.57
- Implied Low
- $22.91
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) has an expected move of 25.46%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.91 to $38.57 from the current $30.74. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
PKOH Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. pricing an expected move of 25.46% from $30.74, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for PKOH derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30.74 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 88.8% | 27.1% | $39.07 | $22.41 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 63.9% | 26.5% | $38.90 | $22.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 54.3% | 31.9% | $40.55 | $20.93 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 47.7% | 36.8% | $42.05 | $19.43 |
Frequently asked PKOH expected move questions
- What is the current PKOH expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) has an expected move of 25.46% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.91 to $38.57 from the current $30.74. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the PKOH expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is PKOH expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.