Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK) operates in the Real Estate sector, specifically the REIT - Hotel & Motel industry, with a market capitalization near $2.18B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 91 people, carrying a beta of 1.36 to the broader market. Park is the second largest publicly traded lodging REIT with a diverse portfolio of market-leading hotels and resorts with significant underlying real estate value. Led by Thomas Jeremiah Baltimore Jr., public since 2017-01-04.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $10.77
- Expected Move
- 11.2%
- Implied High
- $11.97
- Implied Low
- $9.57
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK) has an expected move of 11.15%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $9.57 to $11.97 from the current $10.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
PK Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.15% from $10.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for PK derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $10.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 38.9% | 11.9% | $12.05 | $9.49 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 315.3% | 131.0% | $24.88 | $-3.34 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 38.6% | 25.1% | $13.47 | $8.07 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 38.2% | 31.3% | $14.14 | $7.40 |
PK highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $12.50 | Jul 17, 2026 | 1 | 1.2K | 868.1% | $0.10 | $0.20 |
| CALL | $10.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 0 | 198 | 315.3% | $0.55 | $1.20 |
| PUT | $10.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 13 | 2.3K | 315.3% | $0.30 | $0.40 |
| PUT | $15.00 | Jul 17, 2026 | 0 | 884 | 300.3% | $3.80 | $5.00 |
Top 4 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked PK expected move questions
- What is the current PK expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK) has an expected move of 11.15% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $9.57 to $11.97 from the current $10.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the PK expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is PK expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.