How are PGR butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the PGR butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 29.29%), the computed maximum profit is $812.49 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$185.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.

What is the breakeven for a PGR butterfly?

The breakeven for the PGR butterfly priced on this page is roughly $211.85 and $228.15 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current PGR market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 8.40%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.

How does current PGR implied volatility affect this butterfly?

PGR ATM IV is at 29.29% with IV rank near 73.16%, which is elevated relative to its 1-year range. Premium-selling structures (covered call, cash-secured put, iron condor) generally look more attractive when IV rank is high; premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are more expensive in that regime.

PGR Butterfly Strategy

PGR (The Progressive Corporation), in the Financial Services sector, (Insurance - Property & Casualty industry), listed on NYSE.

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications.

PGR (The Progressive Corporation) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Insurance - Property & Casualty, with a market capitalization of approximately $131.09B, a trailing P/E of 11.37, a beta of 0.27 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 189.2-267.93, average daily share volume of 3.1M, a public-listing history dating back to 1980, approximately 66K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how PGR stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.

A beta of 0.27 indicates PGR has historically moved less than the broader market, dampening realized volatility and producing tighter expected-move bands per unit of dollar exposure. The trailing P/E of 11.37 is on the value side, where IV often compresses outside event windows because forward growth expectations are already discounted into the share price. PGR pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.

What is a butterfly on PGR?

A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.

Current PGR snapshot

As of June 30, 2026, spot at $218.92, ATM IV 29.29%, IV rank 73.16%, expected move 8.40%. The butterfly on PGR below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 31-day expiry.

Why this butterfly structure on PGR specifically: PGR IV at 29.29% is rich versus its 1-year range, which makes a premium-buying PGR butterfly relatively expensive in absolute-cost terms, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 8.40% (roughly $18.38 on the underlying). The 31-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated PGR expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on PGR should anchor to the underlying notional of $218.92 per share and to the trader's directional view on PGR stock.

PGR butterfly setup

The PGR butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With PGR near $218.92, the first option leg uses a $210.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed PGR chain at a 31-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 PGR shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).

Action	Type	Strike / Basis	Premium (est)
Buy 1	Call	$210.00	$13.45
Sell 2	Call	$220.00	$7.45
Buy 1	Call	$230.00	$3.30

PGR butterfly risk and reward

Net Premium / Debit: -$185.00
Max Profit (per contract): $812.49
Max Loss (per contract): -$185.00
Breakeven(s): $211.85, $228.15
Risk / Reward Ratio: 4.392

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.

PGR butterfly payoff curve

Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on PGR. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.

P&L at expiration across the modeled underlying-price range. Green shading marks profitable regions, red shading marks loss regions. Dotted purple verticals mark breakevens; the solid dark vertical marks current spot.

Underlying Price	% From Spot	P&L at Expiration
$0.01	-100.0%	-$185.00
$48.41	-77.9%	-$185.00
$96.82	-55.8%	-$185.00
$145.22	-33.7%	-$185.00
$193.62	-11.6%	-$185.00
$242.03	+10.6%	-$185.00
$290.43	+32.7%	-$185.00
$338.83	+54.8%	-$185.00
$387.24	+76.9%	-$185.00
$435.64	+99.0%	-$185.00

When traders use butterfly on PGR

Butterflies on PGR are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect PGR to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.

PGR thesis for this butterfly

The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for PGR extends from approximately $200.54 on the downside to $237.30 on the upside. A PGR long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if PGR settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current PGR IV rank near 73.16% sits in the upper third of its 1-year distribution, which historically reverts; this raises the bar for premium-buying structures and lowers it for premium-selling structures on PGR at 29.29%. As a Financial Services name, PGR options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to PGR-specific events.

PGR butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. PGR positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move PGR alongside the broader basket even when PGR-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current PGR chain quotes before placing a trade.

Frequently asked questions

What is a butterfly on PGR?: A butterfly on PGR is the butterfly strategy applied to PGR (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With PGR stock trading near $218.92, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed PGR chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
How are PGR butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?: Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the PGR butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 29.29%), the computed maximum profit is $812.49 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$185.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
What is the breakeven for a PGR butterfly?: The breakeven for the PGR butterfly priced on this page is roughly $211.85 and $228.15 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current PGR market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 8.40%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
When should you consider a butterfly on PGR?: Butterflies on PGR are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect PGR to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
How does current PGR implied volatility affect this butterfly?: PGR ATM IV is at 29.29% with IV rank near 73.16%, which is elevated relative to its 1-year range. Premium-selling structures (covered call, cash-secured put, iron condor) generally look more attractive when IV rank is high; premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are more expensive in that regime.