What is the current PBR expected move?

As of Oct 29, 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has an expected move of 11.14% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $19.41 to $24.27 from the current $21.84. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the PBR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is PBR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Integrated industry, with a market capitalization near $141.13B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 50,687 people, carrying a beta of -0.22 to the broader market. Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S. Led by Magda Maria de Regina Chambriard, public since 2000-08-10.

Snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $21.84
Expected Move: 11.1%
Implied High: $24.27
Implied Low: $19.41
Front DTE: 29 days

As of Oct 29, 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has an expected move of 11.14%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $19.41 to $24.27 from the current $21.84. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

PBR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras pricing an expected move of 11.14% from $21.84, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the PBR implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.14%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $19.41 to $24.27. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

PBR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. PBR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.009), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing PBR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. PBR put/call volume ratio currently at 0.20 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for PBR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $21.84 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 30, 2026	1	50.6%	2.6%	$22.42	$21.26
Nov 6, 2026	8	38.6%	5.7%	$23.09	$20.59
Nov 13, 2026	15	40.9%	8.3%	$23.65	$20.03
Nov 20, 2026	22	40.4%	9.9%	$24.01	$19.67
Nov 27, 2026	29	39.0%	11.0%	$24.24	$19.44
Dec 4, 2026	36	38.1%	12.0%	$24.45	$19.23
Dec 18, 2026	50	37.6%	13.9%	$24.88	$18.80
Jan 15, 2027	78	36.7%	17.0%	$25.55	$18.13
Feb 19, 2027	113	35.7%	19.9%	$26.18	$17.50
Mar 19, 2027	141	36.1%	22.4%	$26.74	$16.94
Apr 16, 2027	169	35.4%	24.1%	$27.10	$16.58
Jun 17, 2027	231	36.9%	29.4%	$28.25	$15.43
Sep 17, 2027	323	36.3%	34.1%	$29.30	$14.38
Dec 17, 2027	414	36.1%	38.4%	$30.24	$13.44
Jan 21, 2028	449	36.4%	40.4%	$30.66	$13.02
Feb 18, 2028	477	35.9%	41.0%	$30.80	$12.88
Jan 19, 2029	813	34.5%	51.5%	$33.09	$10.59

Frequently asked PBR expected move questions

What is the current PBR expected move?: As of Oct 29, 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has an expected move of 11.14% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $19.41 to $24.27 from the current $21.84. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the PBR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is PBR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.