What is the current PBR expected move?

As of Sep 11, 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has an expected move of 13.54% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.25 to $23.97 from the current $21.11. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the PBR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is PBR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Integrated industry, with a market capitalization near $134.88B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 50,687 people, carrying a beta of -0.22 to the broader market. Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S. Led by Magda Maria de Regina Chambriard, public since 2000-08-10.

Snapshot as of Sep 11, 2026.

Spot Price: $21.11
Expected Move: 13.5%
Implied High: $23.97
Implied Low: $18.25
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Sep 11, 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has an expected move of 13.54%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.25 to $23.97 from the current $21.11. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

PBR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras pricing an expected move of 13.54% from $21.11, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the PBR implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 13.54%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $18.25 to $23.97. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

PBR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. PBR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.033), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing PBR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. PBR put/call volume ratio currently at 1.05 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for PBR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $21.11 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Sep 18, 2026	7	38.2%	5.3%	$22.23	$19.99
Sep 25, 2026	14	39.5%	7.7%	$22.74	$19.48
Oct 2, 2026	21	39.9%	9.6%	$23.13	$19.09
Oct 9, 2026	28	48.3%	13.4%	$23.93	$18.29
Oct 16, 2026	35	45.0%	13.9%	$24.05	$18.17
Oct 23, 2026	42	46.2%	15.7%	$24.42	$17.80
Oct 30, 2026	49	53.3%	19.5%	$25.23	$16.99
Nov 20, 2026	70	48.2%	21.1%	$25.57	$16.65
Dec 18, 2026	98	46.1%	23.9%	$26.15	$16.07
Jan 15, 2027	126	43.2%	25.4%	$26.47	$15.75
Feb 19, 2027	161	40.1%	26.6%	$26.73	$15.49
Mar 19, 2027	189	40.7%	29.3%	$27.29	$14.93
Apr 16, 2027	217	40.8%	31.5%	$27.75	$14.47
Jun 17, 2027	279	38.9%	34.0%	$28.29	$13.93
Sep 17, 2027	371	38.6%	38.9%	$29.33	$12.89
Dec 17, 2027	462	35.8%	40.3%	$29.61	$12.61
Jan 21, 2028	497	38.8%	45.3%	$30.67	$11.55
Feb 18, 2028	525	38.0%	45.6%	$30.73	$11.49

Frequently asked PBR expected move questions

What is the current PBR expected move?: As of Sep 11, 2026, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) has an expected move of 13.54% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.25 to $23.97 from the current $21.11. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the PBR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is PBR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.