Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Specialty Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $1.39B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 278 people, carrying a beta of 1.84 to the broader market. Olaplex Holdings, Inc. Led by Amanda G. Baldwin, public since 2021-09-30.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$3.08

ATM IV

491.3%

IV Rank

100.0%

IV Percentile

100.0%

HV 20-Day

139.1%

IV Skew 25Δ

-0.043

As of Jul 15, 2026, Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) at $3.08 has an ATM IV of 491.3%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.34. IV rank is 100.0% (elevated, distribution priced wider than typical). IV percentile is 100.0%. The 25-delta skew is -0.043: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How OLPX probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Olaplex Holdings, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 491.3% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the OLPX probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Olaplex Holdings, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 491.3% and spot at $3.08, the 1σ band is approximately ±169.5% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 139.1% runs 352.2 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

OLPX risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. OLPX's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.043) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the OLPX distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With OLPX IV rank at 100.0%, the chain is pricing fatter tails than recent realized history; sellers earn the gap on average. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →