What is the current OGN expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Organon & Co. (OGN) has an expected move of 1.15% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.55 to $13.87 from the current $13.71. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the OGN expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is OGN expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Organon & Co. (OGN) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Organon & Co. (OGN) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $3.59B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 10,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.52 to the broader market. Organon & Co. Led by Joseph T. Morrissey Jr., public since 2021-05-14.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $13.71
Expected Move: 1.2%
Implied High: $13.87
Implied Low: $13.55
Front DTE: 35 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Organon & Co. (OGN) has an expected move of 1.15%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $13.55 to $13.87 from the current $13.71. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

OGN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Organon & Co. pricing an expected move of 1.15% from $13.71, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the OGN implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 1.15%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $13.55 to $13.87. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

OGN expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. OGN term-structure is in contango (slope 0.137), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing OGN structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. OGN put/call volume ratio currently at 3.49 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for OGN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $13.71 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	22.8%	3.2%	$14.14	$13.28
Sep 18, 2026	35	4.0%	1.2%	$13.88	$13.54
Oct 16, 2026	63	17.7%	7.4%	$14.72	$12.70
Dec 18, 2026	126	23.5%	13.8%	$15.60	$11.82
Jan 15, 2027	154	31.5%	20.5%	$16.52	$10.90
Mar 19, 2027	217	38.6%	29.8%	$17.79	$9.63
Dec 17, 2027	490	15.0%	17.4%	$16.09	$11.33
Jan 21, 2028	525	23.9%	28.7%	$17.64	$9.78

OGN highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$11.00	Dec 18, 2026	663	11.4K	27.3%	$0.05	$0.15

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked OGN expected move questions

What is the current OGN expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Organon & Co. (OGN) has an expected move of 1.15% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.55 to $13.87 from the current $13.71. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the OGN expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is OGN expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.