Organon & Co. (OGN) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Organon & Co. (OGN) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $3.50B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 10,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.55 to the broader market. Organon & Co. Led by Joseph T. Morrissey Jr., public since 2021-05-14.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $13.39
- Expected Move
- 1.1%
- Implied High
- $13.54
- Implied Low
- $13.24
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Organon & Co. (OGN) has an expected move of 1.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $13.24 to $13.54 from the current $13.39. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
OGN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Organon & Co. pricing an expected move of 1.09% from $13.39, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for OGN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $13.39 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 3.8% | 1.2% | $13.55 | $13.23 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 9.9% | 4.1% | $13.94 | $12.84 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 26.6% | 15.6% | $15.48 | $11.30 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 18.8% | 12.2% | $15.03 | $11.75 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 3.6% | 2.8% | $13.76 | $13.02 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 12.5% | 10.2% | $14.76 | $12.02 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 35.6% | 32.7% | $17.77 | $9.01 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 14.0% | 17.7% | $15.76 | $11.02 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 12.8% | 16.6% | $15.62 | $11.16 |
OGN highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $14.00 | Dec 18, 2026 | 11 | 3.8K | 3.6% | $0.10 | $0.15 |
Top 1 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked OGN expected move questions
- What is the current OGN expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Organon & Co. (OGN) has an expected move of 1.09% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $13.24 to $13.54 from the current $13.39. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the OGN expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is OGN expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.