Realty Income Corporation (O) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Realty Income Corporation (O) operates in the Real Estate sector, specifically the REIT - Retail industry, with a market capitalization near $57.37B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 468 people, carrying a beta of 0.76 to the broader market. Realty Income, The Monthly Dividend Company, is an S&P 500 company dedicated to providing stockholders with dependable monthly income. Led by Sumit Roy, public since 1994-10-18.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $61.25
- Expected Move
- 5.2%
- Implied High
- $64.46
- Implied Low
- $58.04
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Realty Income Corporation (O) has an expected move of 5.25%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $58.04 to $64.46 from the current $61.25. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
O Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Realty Income Corporation pricing an expected move of 5.25% from $61.25, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for O derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $61.25 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 18.3% | 5.6% | $64.67 | $57.83 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 19.0% | 7.9% | $66.08 | $56.42 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 19.0% | 9.8% | $67.28 | $55.22 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 18.7% | 11.0% | $67.98 | $54.52 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 19.2% | 14.8% | $70.32 | $52.18 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 19.2% | 15.7% | $70.88 | $51.62 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 19.3% | 17.7% | $72.11 | $50.39 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 21.3% | 27.7% | $78.20 | $44.30 |
Frequently asked O expected move questions
- What is the current O expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Realty Income Corporation (O) has an expected move of 5.25% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $58.04 to $64.46 from the current $61.25. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the O expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is O expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.