What is the current NVO expected move?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) has an expected move of 11.90% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.52 to $42.58 from the current $38.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the NVO expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is NVO expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $169.01B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 68,794 people, carrying a beta of 0.35 to the broader market. Novo Nordisk A/S is a global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the investigation, creation, manufacturing, and distribution of medicinal products across a vast international footprint. Led by Maziar Mike Doustdar, public since 1981-04-30.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $38.05
Expected Move: 11.9%
Implied High: $42.58
Implied Low: $33.52
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Oct 14, 2026, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) has an expected move of 11.90%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $33.52 to $42.58 from the current $38.05. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

NVO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Novo Nordisk A/S pricing an expected move of 11.90% from $38.05, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the NVO implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.90%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $33.52 to $42.58. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

NVO expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. NVO term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.027), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing NVO structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. NVO put/call volume ratio currently at 0.86 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for NVO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $38.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	2	33.9%	2.5%	$39.00	$37.10
Oct 23, 2026	9	31.8%	5.0%	$39.95	$36.15
Oct 30, 2026	16	32.2%	6.7%	$40.62	$35.48
Nov 6, 2026	23	45.5%	11.4%	$42.40	$33.70
Nov 13, 2026	30	41.5%	11.9%	$42.58	$33.52
Nov 20, 2026	37	38.8%	12.4%	$42.75	$33.35
Nov 27, 2026	44	39.2%	13.6%	$43.23	$32.87
Dec 18, 2026	65	37.1%	15.7%	$44.01	$32.09
Jan 15, 2027	93	36.1%	18.2%	$44.98	$31.12
Mar 19, 2027	156	37.6%	24.6%	$47.40	$28.70
Jun 17, 2027	246	39.4%	32.3%	$50.36	$25.74
Sep 17, 2027	338	40.0%	38.5%	$52.70	$23.40
Dec 17, 2027	429	40.1%	43.5%	$54.59	$21.51
Jan 21, 2028	464	40.0%	45.1%	$55.21	$20.89
Jun 16, 2028	611	41.2%	53.3%	$58.33	$17.77
Dec 15, 2028	793	41.5%	61.2%	$61.33	$14.77
Jan 19, 2029	828	41.1%	61.9%	$61.60	$14.50

Frequently asked NVO expected move questions

What is the current NVO expected move?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) has an expected move of 11.90% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.52 to $42.58 from the current $38.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the NVO expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is NVO expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.