Noodles & Company (NDLS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Noodles & Company (NDLS) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Restaurants industry, with a market capitalization near $86.7M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 6,500 people, carrying a beta of 1.37 to the broader market. Noodles & Company is a fast-casual dining enterprise, engaged in both the conceptualization and operation of its eateries. Led by Joseph D. Christina, public since 2013-06-28.

Snapshot as of Aug 21, 2026.

Spot Price

$17.59

How to read the NDLS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

NDLS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move.

Sizing NDLS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for NDLS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $17.59 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.