Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares (MRX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares (MRX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Capital Markets industry, with a market capitalization near $4.19B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 2,425 people, carrying a beta of 0.06 to the broader market. Marex Group plc, a financial services platform provider company, provides liquidity, market access, and infrastructure services to clients in the energy, commodities, and financial markets in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. Led by Ian Theo Lowitt, public since 1990-03-28.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $56.40
- Expected Move
- 11.7%
- Implied High
- $63.01
- Implied Low
- $49.79
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares (MRX) has an expected move of 11.73%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $49.79 to $63.01 from the current $56.40. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MRX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares pricing an expected move of 11.73% from $56.40, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MRX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $56.40 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 40.9% | 12.5% | $63.44 | $49.36 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 42.3% | 17.6% | $66.31 | $46.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 44.9% | 26.4% | $71.28 | $41.52 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 46.2% | 35.6% | $76.49 | $36.31 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 46.8% | 38.3% | $78.03 | $34.77 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 50.4% | 63.6% | $92.26 | $20.54 |
Frequently asked MRX expected move questions
- What is the current MRX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares (MRX) has an expected move of 11.73% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $49.79 to $63.01 from the current $56.40. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MRX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MRX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.