Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, with a market capitalization near $280.20B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 73,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.20 to the broader market. Merck & Co. Led by Robert Davis, public since 1978-01-13.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $111.64
- Expected Move
- 8.4%
- Implied High
- $121.01
- Implied Low
- $102.27
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) has an expected move of 8.39%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $102.27 to $121.01 from the current $111.64. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MRK Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Merck & Co., Inc. pricing an expected move of 8.39% from $111.64, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MRK derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $111.64 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 25.5% | 3.5% | $115.58 | $107.70 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 26.5% | 5.2% | $117.43 | $105.85 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 29.6% | 7.1% | $119.57 | $103.71 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 29.0% | 8.0% | $120.61 | $102.67 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 29.7% | 9.1% | $121.76 | $101.52 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 28.5% | 9.7% | $122.43 | $100.85 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 28.7% | 11.9% | $124.95 | $98.33 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 30.4% | 15.8% | $129.23 | $94.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 30.4% | 17.9% | $131.58 | $91.70 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 30.5% | 19.8% | $133.76 | $89.52 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 30.5% | 23.5% | $137.89 | $85.39 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 30.2% | 24.7% | $139.26 | $84.02 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 30.4% | 27.9% | $142.82 | $80.46 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 30.4% | 31.7% | $147.08 | $76.20 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 581 | 30.1% | 38.0% | $154.04 | $69.24 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 30.1% | 39.1% | $155.29 | $67.99 |
Frequently asked MRK expected move questions
- What is the current MRK expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) has an expected move of 8.39% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $102.27 to $121.01 from the current $111.64. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MRK expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MRK expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.