Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) Max Pain Analysis
Max pain is the strike price where aggregate option buyer payout is minimized at expiration. It represents the price at which option writers retain the most premium.
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $5.55B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 2,364 people, carrying a beta of 0.83 to the broader market. Mercury Systems, Inc. Led by William L. Ballhaus, public since 1998-01-30.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $91.99
- Max Pain Strike
- $80.00
- Total OI
- 4.5K
As of May 15, 2026, Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) max pain sits at $80.00, which is below the current spot price of $91.99 (13.0% away). Spot sits 13.0% below max pain - the gap is wide enough that the pinning effect alone is unlikely to close it; expect catalyst flow, positioning unwinds, or rebalancing to drive the actual price path before any expiration pull. MRCY sits in the lower-price band (spot $91.99), where $0.50-$2.50 strike spacing makes pin-to-strike effects easy to spot but per-contract dollar gamma is smaller. Total open interest across the listed chain is comparatively thin (4.5K contracts), so single-strike pinning is less reliable than it is for high-OI names. MRCY is currently in positive dealer gamma ($321.7K), the regime that mechanically reinforces pinning by inducing dealers to buy weakness and sell strength near heavy-OI strikes. Max pain identifies the strike at which the aggregate dollar value of all outstanding options contracts would expire with the least total intrinsic value, a gravitational reference rather than a price target.
MRCY Strategy Implications at the Current Max Pain Level
With spot 13.0% from the $80.00 max-pain level and Mercury Systems, Inc. in a positive-gamma regime, where dealer hedging mechanically pulls spot toward heavy-OI strikes, strategy selection turns on cycle position and dealer positioning. Iron condors and credit spreads centered near the max-pain strike capture the typical end-of-cycle convergence when the regime supports pinning; ratio backspreads or directional debit structures fit names where catalyst flow is likely to overwhelm the hedging-driven pull. The gamma-exposure page shows the per-strike dealer book that determines whether hedging will reinforce or fight the pin.
Learn how max pain is reported and how to read the data →
Frequently asked MRCY max pain analysis questions
- What is the current MRCY max pain strike?
- As of May 15, 2026, Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) max pain sits at $80.00, which is 13.0% below the current spot price of $91.99. Max pain identifies the strike at which aggregate option-buyer payouts at expiration are minimized; it is a gravitational reference, not a price target. A 13.0% gap is wide enough that the pinning effect alone is unlikely to close it; expect catalyst flow, positioning unwinds, or rebalancing to drive the price path before any expiration pull.
- Does MRCY pin to its max pain strike at expiration?
- MRCY is currently in positive dealer gamma, the regime that mechanically reinforces pinning. Dealers hedging long-gamma books buy weakness and sell strength near high-OI strikes, which pulls spot toward those levels into expiration. Total open interest across MRCY (4.5K contracts) is one input to how plausible a clean pin is - heavier total OI concentrated at fewer strikes raises the probability; thin OI spread across many strikes lowers it. Pinning is strongest in heavily-traded names with large open-interest concentrations at high-OI strikes during the final week of an OPEX cycle. Whether MRCY actually pins on a given expiration depends on the OI distribution, the dealer-gamma sign, and the absence of catalyst-driven moves that overwhelm hedging-driven flow.
- How is MRCY max pain calculated?
- Max pain is computed by summing the dollar value of all in-the-money options at each candidate settlement strike across listed expirations, then selecting the strike that minimizes total intrinsic-value payout to option buyers. The calculation uses the full open-interest distribution and weighs both calls and puts. MRCY put/call OI ratio is 0.55 - call-heavy, which biases the max-pain calculation toward strikes above current spot when the call OI concentrates there.