What is the current MPT expected move?

As of Oct 13, 2026, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) has an expected move of 14.37% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $2.68 to $3.58 from the current $3.13. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the MPT expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is MPT expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) operates in the Real Estate sector, specifically the REIT - Healthcare Facilities industry, with a market capitalization near $1.87B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 121 people, carrying a beta of 1.49 to the broader market. Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Led by Edward K. Aldag Jr., public since 2005-07-07.

Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.

Spot Price: $3.13
Expected Move: 14.4%
Implied High: $3.58
Implied Low: $2.68
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Oct 13, 2026, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) has an expected move of 14.37%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $2.68 to $3.58 from the current $3.13. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

MPT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Medical Properties Trust, Inc. pricing an expected move of 14.37% from $3.13, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the MPT implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.37%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $2.68 to $3.58. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

MPT expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. MPT term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.011), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 6.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical MPT range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing MPT structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. MPT put/call volume ratio currently at 0.58 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for MPT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $3.13 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	3	19.9%	1.8%	$3.19	$3.07
Oct 23, 2026	10	315.5%	52.2%	$4.76	$1.50
Oct 30, 2026	17	63.9%	13.8%	$3.56	$2.70
Nov 6, 2026	24	51.9%	13.3%	$3.55	$2.71
Nov 13, 2026	31	49.9%	14.5%	$3.59	$2.67
Nov 20, 2026	38	48.8%	15.7%	$3.62	$2.64
Nov 27, 2026	45	48.7%	17.1%	$3.67	$2.59
Jan 15, 2027	94	45.3%	23.0%	$3.85	$2.41
Mar 19, 2027	157	46.4%	30.4%	$4.08	$2.18
Apr 16, 2027	185	45.6%	32.5%	$4.15	$2.11
Jun 17, 2027	247	47.1%	38.7%	$4.34	$1.92
Sep 17, 2027	339	50.7%	48.9%	$4.66	$1.60
Dec 17, 2027	430	51.3%	55.7%	$4.87	$1.39
Jan 21, 2028	465	46.6%	52.6%	$4.78	$1.48
Jun 16, 2028	612	61.8%	80.0%	$5.63	$0.63
Dec 15, 2028	794	49.2%	72.6%	$5.40	$0.86
Jan 19, 2029	829	56.8%	85.6%	$5.81	$0.45

MPT highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$4.00	Oct 23, 2026	4	227	956.2%	$0.94	$1.06
PUT	$4.00	Oct 30, 2026	21	153	952.7%	$0.93	$1.00
PUT	$3.50	Oct 23, 2026	33	362	951.3%	$0.46	$0.50
PUT	$3.50	Oct 30, 2026	55	695	890.2%	$0.45	$0.51

Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked MPT expected move questions

What is the current MPT expected move?: As of Oct 13, 2026, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) has an expected move of 14.37% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $2.68 to $3.58 from the current $3.13. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the MPT expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is MPT expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.