What is the MPAA 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with MPAA at $11.14 and ATM IV at 93.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.99, or about $8.15 to $14.13. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does MPAA risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MPAA price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does MPAA ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Auto - Parts industry, with a market capitalization near $214.2M, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 5,900 people, carrying a beta of 1.23 to the broader market. Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. Led by Selwyn H. Joffe, public since 1994-03-23.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $11.14
ATM IV: 93.5%
IV Rank: 16.9%
IV Percentile: 63.1%
HV 20-Day: 31.7%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.064

As of May 29, 2026, Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) at $11.14 has an ATM IV of 93.5%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$2.99. IV rank is 16.9% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 63.1%. The 25-delta skew is -0.064: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How MPAA probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 93.5% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the MPAA probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 93.5% and spot at $11.14, the 1σ band is approximately ±32.3% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 31.7% runs 61.8 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

MPAA risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. MPAA's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.064) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the MPAA distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With MPAA IV rank at 16.9%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked MPAA probability analysis questions

What is the MPAA 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with MPAA at $11.14 and ATM IV at 93.5%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$2.99, or about $8.15 to $14.13. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does MPAA risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future MPAA price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does MPAA ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.