McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Packaged Foods industry, with a market capitalization near $12.26B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 14,100 people, carrying a beta of 0.67 to the broader market. McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. Led by Brendan Foley, public since 1999-04-26.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $45.97
- Expected Move
- 9.0%
- Implied High
- $50.10
- Implied Low
- $41.84
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) has an expected move of 8.97%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $41.84 to $50.10 from the current $45.97. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MKC Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With McCormick & Company, Incorporated pricing an expected move of 8.97% from $45.97, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MKC derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $45.97 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 31.3% | 9.6% | $50.36 | $41.58 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 38.3% | 15.9% | $53.28 | $38.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 36.5% | 21.4% | $55.83 | $36.11 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 36.8% | 28.4% | $59.01 | $32.93 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 36.8% | 30.1% | $59.83 | $32.11 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 36.2% | 33.3% | $61.26 | $30.68 |
Frequently asked MKC expected move questions
- What is the current MKC expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) has an expected move of 8.97% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $41.84 to $50.10 from the current $45.97. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MKC expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MKC expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.