What is the current MGY expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) has an expected move of 9.80% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.63 to $28.77 from the current $26.20. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the MGY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is MGY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, with a market capitalization near $6.22B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 262 people, carrying a beta of 0.70 to the broader market. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is an energy company engaged in the full lifecycle of hydrocarbon resource management: acquisition, development, exploration, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) within the United States. Led by Christopher G. Stavros, public since 2017-06-29.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $26.20
Expected Move: 9.8%
Implied High: $28.77
Implied Low: $23.63
Front DTE: 35 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) has an expected move of 9.80%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $23.63 to $28.77 from the current $26.20. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

MGY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation pricing an expected move of 9.80% from $26.20, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the MGY implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.80%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $23.63 to $28.77. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

MGY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. MGY term-structure is in contango (slope 0.021), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 9.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical MGY range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing MGY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. MGY put/call volume ratio currently at 5.35 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for MGY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $26.20 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	19.9%	2.8%	$26.92	$25.48
Sep 18, 2026	35	34.2%	10.6%	$28.97	$23.43
Dec 18, 2026	126	36.3%	21.3%	$31.79	$20.61
Mar 19, 2027	217	38.0%	29.3%	$33.88	$18.52
Dec 17, 2027	490	39.7%	46.0%	$38.25	$14.15

Frequently asked MGY expected move questions

What is the current MGY expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) has an expected move of 9.80% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.63 to $28.77 from the current $26.20. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the MGY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is MGY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.