Is MDGL options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of Oct 14, 2026, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) ATM IV is 58.2% against 20-day realized volatility of 22.0%. IV rank is 44.6%. MDGL options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 36.2 vol points.

What is the MDGL variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. MDGL is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does MDGL IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. MDGL's current rank of 44.6% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Biotechnology industry, with a market capitalization near $10.45B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 915 people, carrying a beta of -1.05 to the broader market. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Led by William J. Sibold, public since 2007-02-06.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $458.20
ATM IV: 58.2%
HV 20-Day: 22.0%
HV 60-Day: 41.1%
IV Rank: 44.6%
IV Percentile: 73.4%

As of Oct 14, 2026, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) ATM implied volatility is 58.2%. 20-day realized volatility is 22.0%, producing an IV-HV spread of +36.2 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 44.6%.

How MDGL iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 58.2% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the MDGL IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart below tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 58.2%, 44.6% IV rank, against 22.0% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 36.2 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

MDGL IV/HV regimes and trade selection

MDGL IV rank at 44.6% sits mid-range - no structural edge from rank alone. Strategy choice should follow event calendar and the dealer-positioning read.

Using MDGL vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -0.036) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

MDGL IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. MDGL's 44.6% IV rank places the ticker in the mid-range of its 1-year window - no strong cycle-position signal. The ratio of HV-20 (22.0%) to HV-60 (41.1%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series below to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for MDGL over the last ~31 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
Oct 14, 2026	58.2%	22.0%	41.1%	44.6%
Oct 13, 2026	57.4%	21.6%	41.2%	43.0%
Oct 12, 2026	53.8%	21.9%	41.4%	35.9%
Oct 9, 2026	43.5%	22.7%	42.2%	15.3%
Oct 8, 2026	46.0%	23.1%	42.5%	20.3%
Oct 7, 2026	42.0%	23.9%	42.7%	12.4%
Oct 6, 2026	42.5%	26.8%	42.7%	13.4%
Oct 5, 2026	41.0%	27.0%	42.7%	10.4%
Oct 2, 2026	40.3%	27.0%	43.5%	9.0%
Oct 1, 2026	40.5%	26.8%	43.4%	9.4%
Sep 30, 2026	41.0%	27.7%	43.7%	10.4%
Sep 29, 2026	42.2%	27.9%	44.5%	12.8%
Sep 28, 2026	41.9%	27.0%	44.3%	12.2%
Sep 25, 2026	41.9%	27.2%	44.4%	12.2%
Sep 24, 2026	40.2%	27.1%	45.5%	8.8%

Frequently asked MDGL iv/hv history questions

Is MDGL options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of Oct 14, 2026, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) ATM IV is 58.2% against 20-day realized volatility of 22.0%. IV rank is 44.6%. MDGL options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 36.2 vol points.
What is the MDGL variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. MDGL is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does MDGL IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. MDGL's current rank of 44.6% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.