Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry, with a market capitalization near $2.06B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 2,900 people, carrying a beta of 1.36 to the broader market. Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Led by John Farahi, public since 1993-08-06.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $118.06
- Expected Move
- 8.0%
- Implied High
- $127.54
- Implied Low
- $108.58
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) has an expected move of 8.03%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $108.58 to $127.54 from the current $118.06. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MCRI Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. pricing an expected move of 8.03% from $118.06, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MCRI derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $118.06 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 28.0% | 8.5% | $128.15 | $107.97 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 28.0% | 11.6% | $131.79 | $104.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 28.2% | 16.6% | $137.62 | $98.50 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 28.1% | 21.7% | $143.64 | $92.48 |
Frequently asked MCRI expected move questions
- What is the current MCRI expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) has an expected move of 8.03% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $108.58 to $127.54 from the current $118.06. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MCRI expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MCRI expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.