Moelis & Company (MC) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Moelis & Company (MC) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Financial - Capital Markets industry, with a market capitalization near $4.77B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 1,308 people, carrying a beta of 1.87 to the broader market. Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. Led by Navid Mahmoodzadegan, public since 2014-04-16.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $63.77
- Expected Move
- 11.7%
- Implied High
- $71.23
- Implied Low
- $56.31
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Moelis & Company (MC) has an expected move of 11.70%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $56.31 to $71.23 from the current $63.77. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
MC Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Moelis & Company pricing an expected move of 11.70% from $63.77, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for MC derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $63.77 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 40.8% | 12.5% | $71.71 | $55.83 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 41.6% | 17.3% | $74.79 | $52.75 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 41.1% | 21.3% | $77.35 | $50.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 41.4% | 24.3% | $79.28 | $48.26 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 41.1% | 26.7% | $80.79 | $46.75 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 41.8% | 30.1% | $82.95 | $44.59 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 41.0% | 33.6% | $85.19 | $42.35 |
Frequently asked MC expected move questions
- What is the current MC expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Moelis & Company (MC) has an expected move of 11.70% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $56.31 to $71.23 from the current $63.77. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the MC expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is MC expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.