MBLY Butterfly Strategy

MBLY (Mobileye Global Inc.), in the Consumer Cyclical sector, (Auto - Parts industry), listed on NASDAQ.

Mobileye Global Inc. is at the forefront of developing and deploying sophisticated advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies worldwide. Its diverse array of offerings includes Driver Assist, a suite of ADAS and autonomous vehicle capabilities that prioritize safety by providing real-time detection of road users, geometry, semantics, and markings, leading to timely alerts and emergency interventions. Complementing this, Cloud-Enhanced Driver Assist furnishes drivers with immediate, cloud-informed interpretations of their surroundings. The company also features its Mobileye SuperVision family of products, which spans from the concise SuperVision Lite, an effective driver assistance solution, to the more comprehensive SuperVision. The latter is an advanced assisted point-to-point navigation system, functional across various road types, and integrates cloud-based enhancements such as road experience management, alongside supporting seamless over-the-air updates. For higher levels of autonomy, Mobileye offers Mobileye Chauffeur, a next-generation solution, and Mobileye Drive, a robust Level 4 autonomous system that includes self-driving vehicle platforms and autonomous mobility-as-a-service options.

MBLY (Mobileye Global Inc.) trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically Auto - Parts, with a market capitalization of approximately $6.36B, a beta of 1.15 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 6.47-20.18, average daily share volume of 6.4M, a public-listing history dating back to 2022, approximately 4K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how MBLY stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.

A beta of 1.15 places MBLY roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline.

What is a butterfly on MBLY?

A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.

Current MBLY snapshot

As of June 29, 2026, spot at $8.36, ATM IV 71.13%, IV rank 54.82%, expected move 20.39%. The butterfly on MBLY below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 32-day expiry.

Why this butterfly structure on MBLY specifically: MBLY IV at 71.13% is mid-range versus its 1-year history, so strategy selection should anchor more to the directional thesis than to the IV regime, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 20.39% (roughly $1.70 on the underlying). The 32-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated MBLY expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on MBLY should anchor to the underlying notional of $8.36 per share and to the trader's directional view on MBLY stock.

MBLY butterfly setup

The MBLY butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With MBLY near $8.36, the first option leg uses a $8.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed MBLY chain at a 32-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 MBLY shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).

ActionTypeStrike / BasisPremium (est)
Buy 1Call$8.00$0.75
Sell 2Call$8.50$0.56
Buy 1Call$9.00$0.38

MBLY butterfly risk and reward

Net Premium / Debit
-$1.00
Max Profit (per contract)
$48.10
Max Loss (per contract)
-$1.00
Breakeven(s)
$8.00
Risk / Reward Ratio
48.095

Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.

MBLY butterfly payoff curve

Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on MBLY. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.

MBLY butterfly profit and loss curve at expiration with breakevens and current spot markedMBLY butterfly payoff at expiration$0$10$20$30$40$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$16Underlying Price ($)P&L at Expiration ($)BE $8.00Spot $8.36
P&L at expiration across the modeled underlying-price range. Green shading marks profitable regions, red shading marks loss regions. Dotted purple verticals mark breakevens; the solid dark vertical marks current spot.
Underlying Price% From SpotP&L at Expiration
$0.01-99.9%-$1.00
$1.86-77.8%-$1.00
$3.70-55.7%-$1.00
$5.55-33.6%-$1.00
$7.40-11.5%-$1.00
$9.25+10.6%-$1.00
$11.09+32.7%-$1.00
$12.94+54.8%-$1.00
$14.79+76.9%-$1.00
$16.64+99.0%-$1.00

When traders use butterfly on MBLY

Butterflies on MBLY are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect MBLY to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.

MBLY thesis for this butterfly

The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for MBLY extends from approximately $6.66 on the downside to $10.06 on the upside. A MBLY long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if MBLY settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current MBLY IV rank near 54.82% is mid-range against its 1-year distribution, so the IV signal is neutral; the butterfly thesis on MBLY should anchor more to the directional view and the expected-move geometry. As a Consumer Cyclical name, MBLY options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to MBLY-specific events.

MBLY butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. MBLY positions also carry Consumer Cyclical sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move MBLY alongside the broader basket even when MBLY-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current MBLY chain quotes before placing a trade.

Frequently asked questions

What is a butterfly on MBLY?
A butterfly on MBLY is the butterfly strategy applied to MBLY (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With MBLY stock trading near $8.36, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed MBLY chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
How are MBLY butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the MBLY butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 71.13%), the computed maximum profit is $48.10 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$1.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
What is the breakeven for a MBLY butterfly?
The breakeven for the MBLY butterfly priced on this page is roughly $8.00 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current MBLY market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 20.39%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
When should you consider a butterfly on MBLY?
Butterflies on MBLY are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect MBLY to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
How does current MBLY implied volatility affect this butterfly?
MBLY ATM IV is at 71.13% with IV rank near 54.82%, which is mid-range against its 1-year history. Strategy selection depends more on directional thesis and expected move than on a strong IV signal.

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