What is the current M expected move?

As of Aug 28, 2026, Macy's, Inc. (M) has an expected move of 15.25% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.76 to $25.52 from the current $22.14. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the M expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is M expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Macy's, Inc. (M) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Macy's, Inc. (M) operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically the Department Stores industry, with a market capitalization near $6.00B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 90,134 people, carrying a beta of 1.45 to the broader market. Macy's, Inc. Led by Antony Spring, public since 1992-02-05.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $22.14
Expected Move: 15.2%
Implied High: $25.52
Implied Low: $18.76
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 28, 2026, Macy's, Inc. (M) has an expected move of 15.25%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $18.76 to $25.52 from the current $22.14. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

M Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Macy's, Inc. pricing an expected move of 15.25% from $22.14, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the M implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 15.25%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $18.76 to $25.52. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

M expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. M term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.022), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing M structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. M put/call volume ratio currently at 1.43 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for M derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $22.14 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Sep 4, 2026	7	35.9%	5.0%	$23.24	$21.04
Sep 11, 2026	14	58.3%	11.4%	$24.67	$19.61
Sep 18, 2026	21	56.1%	13.5%	$25.12	$19.16
Sep 25, 2026	28	53.9%	14.9%	$25.45	$18.83
Oct 2, 2026	35	51.7%	16.0%	$25.68	$18.60
Oct 9, 2026	42	45.7%	15.5%	$25.57	$18.71
Oct 16, 2026	49	46.9%	17.2%	$25.94	$18.34
Nov 20, 2026	84	45.7%	21.9%	$26.99	$17.29
Dec 18, 2026	112	48.5%	26.9%	$28.09	$16.19
Jan 15, 2027	140	46.7%	28.9%	$28.54	$15.74
Feb 19, 2027	175	47.0%	32.5%	$29.35	$14.93
Mar 19, 2027	203	49.0%	36.5%	$30.23	$14.05
Jun 17, 2027	293	49.9%	44.7%	$32.04	$12.24
Sep 17, 2027	385	49.7%	51.0%	$33.44	$10.84
Jan 21, 2028	511	47.4%	56.1%	$34.56	$9.72

M highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$22.00	Sep 4, 2026	888	112	35.9%	$0.50	$0.58
PUT	$21.00	Sep 18, 2026	1.0K	610	59.0%	$0.65	$0.68

Top 2 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked M expected move questions

What is the current M expected move?: As of Aug 28, 2026, Macy's, Inc. (M) has an expected move of 15.25% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $18.76 to $25.52 from the current $22.14. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the M expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is M expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.