Liquidia Corporation (LQDA) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Liquidia Corporation (LQDA) operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically the Medical - Pharmaceuticals industry, with a market capitalization near $2.69B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 216 people, carrying a beta of 0.54 to the broader market. Liquidia Corporation operates as a biopharmaceutical enterprise, concentrating on the development, production, and market introduction of various treatments aimed at fulfilling critical patient requirements throughout the United States. Led by Roger A. Jeffs, public since 2018-07-26.
Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $30.73
- Expected Move
- 49.1%
- Implied High
- $45.82
- Implied Low
- $15.64
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of Sep 30, 2026, Liquidia Corporation (LQDA) has an expected move of 49.10%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $15.64 to $45.82 from the current $30.73. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
LQDA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Liquidia Corporation pricing an expected move of 49.10% from $30.73, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the LQDA implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 49.10%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $15.64 to $45.82. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
LQDA expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. LQDA term-structure is in backwardation (slope -1.692), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. Combined with the 100.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical LQDA trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.
Sizing LQDA structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. LQDA put/call volume ratio currently at 0.73 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for LQDA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30.73 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 2 | 19.1% | 1.4% | $31.16 | $30.30 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 9 | 234.1% | 36.8% | $42.03 | $19.43 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16 | 149.5% | 31.3% | $40.35 | $21.11 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23 | 166.6% | 41.8% | $43.58 | $17.88 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 30 | 171.3% | 49.1% | $45.82 | $15.64 |
| Nov 6, 2026 | 37 | 2.1% | 0.7% | $30.94 | $30.52 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 51 | 100.8% | 37.7% | $42.31 | $19.15 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 79 | 93.4% | 43.5% | $44.08 | $17.38 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 107 | 83.7% | 45.3% | $44.66 | $16.80 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 170 | 83.4% | 56.9% | $48.22 | $13.24 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 198 | 83.4% | 61.4% | $49.61 | $11.85 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 478 | 73.2% | 83.8% | $56.47 | $4.99 |
| Jan 19, 2029 | 842 | 74.0% | 112.4% | $65.27 | $-3.81 |
LQDA highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUT | $65.00 | Oct 9, 2026 | 42 | 122 | 343.1% | $32.50 | $35.80 |
| PUT | $64.00 | Oct 9, 2026 | 86 | 114 | 342.8% | $32.40 | $34.60 |
| PUT | $60.00 | Oct 9, 2026 | 6 | 106 | 341.0% | $28.20 | $30.60 |
| PUT | $55.00 | Oct 9, 2026 | 26 | 141 | 334.6% | $22.50 | $25.90 |
| PUT | $50.00 | Oct 9, 2026 | 17 | 185 | 310.5% | $17.50 | $20.90 |
Top 5 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked LQDA expected move questions
- What is the current LQDA expected move?
- As of Sep 30, 2026, Liquidia Corporation (LQDA) has an expected move of 49.10% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $15.64 to $45.82 from the current $30.73. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the LQDA expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is LQDA expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.