Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $119.88B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 121,000 people, carrying a beta of 0.10 to the broader market. Lockheed Martin Corporation, a security and aerospace company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services worldwide. Led by James D. Taiclet Jr., public since 1977-01-03.
Snapshot as of May 14, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $519.13
- Expected Move
- 8.3%
- Implied High
- $562.06
- Implied Low
- $476.20
- Front DTE
- 29 days
As of May 14, 2026, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) has an expected move of 8.27%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $476.20 to $562.06 from the current $519.13. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
LMT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Lockheed Martin Corporation pricing an expected move of 8.27% from $519.13, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for LMT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $519.13 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 1 | 32.5% | 1.7% | $527.96 | $510.30 |
| May 22, 2026 | 8 | 29.8% | 4.4% | $542.03 | $496.23 |
| May 29, 2026 | 15 | 28.4% | 5.8% | $549.02 | $489.24 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 22 | 29.3% | 7.2% | $556.47 | $481.79 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 29 | 28.9% | 8.1% | $561.42 | $476.84 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 35 | 28.6% | 8.9% | $565.11 | $473.15 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 43 | 28.4% | 9.7% | $569.73 | $468.53 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 64 | 29.0% | 12.1% | $582.17 | $456.09 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 127 | 30.6% | 18.1% | $612.83 | $425.43 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 190 | 30.1% | 21.7% | $631.87 | $406.39 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 218 | 29.7% | 23.0% | $638.29 | $399.97 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 246 | 30.1% | 24.7% | $647.41 | $390.85 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 309 | 30.6% | 28.2% | $665.29 | $372.97 |
| May 21, 2027 | 372 | 31.0% | 31.3% | $681.60 | $356.66 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 617 | 30.8% | 40.0% | $727.02 | $311.24 |
Frequently asked LMT expected move questions
- What is the current LMT expected move?
- As of May 14, 2026, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) has an expected move of 8.27% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $476.20 to $562.06 from the current $519.13. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the LMT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is LMT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.