Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (KW) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (KW) operates in the Real Estate sector, specifically the Real Estate - Services industry, with a market capitalization near $1.53B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 244 people, carrying a beta of 0.90 to the broader market. Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. Led by William J. McMorrow, public since 2007-12-03.
Snapshot as of May 13, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $11.00
- Expected Move
- 15.5%
- Implied High
- $12.71
- Implied Low
- $9.29
- Front DTE
- 36 days
As of May 13, 2026, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (KW) has an expected move of 15.51%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $9.29 to $12.71 from the current $11.00. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KW Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. pricing an expected move of 15.51% from $11.00, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KW derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $11.00 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 2 | 190.3% | 14.1% | $12.55 | $9.45 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 36 | 54.1% | 17.0% | $12.87 | $9.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 128 | 210.5% | 124.7% | $24.71 | $-2.71 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 219 | 8.3% | 6.4% | $11.71 | $10.29 |
Frequently asked KW expected move questions
- What is the current KW expected move?
- As of May 13, 2026, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (KW) has an expected move of 15.51% over the next 36 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $9.29 to $12.71 from the current $11.00. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KW expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KW expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.