What is the current KTOS expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 17.77% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $52.97 to $75.85 from the current $64.41. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KTOS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $11.97B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 4,300 people, carrying a beta of 1.07 to the broader market. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Led by Eric DeMarco, public since 1999-11-05.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $64.41
Expected Move: 17.8%
Implied High: $75.85
Implied Low: $52.97
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 17.77%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $52.97 to $75.85 from the current $64.41. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KTOS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. pricing an expected move of 17.77% from $64.41, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KTOS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 17.77%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $52.97 to $75.85. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KTOS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KTOS term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.001), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 23.2%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KTOS range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing KTOS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KTOS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.27 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KTOS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $64.41 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	61.2%	8.5%	$69.87	$58.95
Aug 28, 2026	14	63.3%	12.4%	$72.39	$56.43
Sep 4, 2026	21	61.3%	14.7%	$73.88	$54.94
Sep 11, 2026	28	62.0%	17.2%	$75.47	$53.35
Sep 18, 2026	35	61.9%	19.2%	$76.76	$52.06
Sep 25, 2026	42	62.7%	21.3%	$78.11	$50.71
Oct 2, 2026	49	62.6%	22.9%	$79.18	$49.64
Nov 20, 2026	98	68.0%	35.2%	$87.10	$41.72
Jan 15, 2027	154	67.3%	43.7%	$92.57	$36.25
Feb 19, 2027	189	67.8%	48.8%	$95.83	$32.99
Dec 17, 2027	490	71.2%	82.5%	$117.55	$11.27
Jan 21, 2028	525	71.0%	85.2%	$119.26	$9.56

KTOS highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$63.00	Aug 21, 2026	185	120	60.8%	$1.25	$1.90

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked KTOS expected move questions

What is the current KTOS expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 17.77% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $52.97 to $75.85 from the current $64.41. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KTOS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.