Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $9.84B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 4,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.06 to the broader market. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Led by Eric DeMarco, public since 1999-11-05.
Snapshot as of May 13, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $53.16
- Expected Move
- 19.8%
- Implied High
- $63.68
- Implied Low
- $42.64
- Front DTE
- 30 days
As of May 13, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 19.78%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $42.64 to $63.68 from the current $53.16. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KTOS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. pricing an expected move of 19.78% from $53.16, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KTOS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $53.16 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 2 | 93.7% | 6.9% | $56.85 | $49.47 |
| May 22, 2026 | 9 | 73.0% | 11.5% | $59.25 | $47.07 |
| May 29, 2026 | 16 | 68.4% | 14.3% | $60.77 | $45.55 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 23 | 68.3% | 17.1% | $62.27 | $44.05 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 30 | 69.0% | 19.8% | $63.68 | $42.64 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 36 | 69.6% | 21.9% | $64.78 | $41.54 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 44 | 68.1% | 23.6% | $65.73 | $40.59 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 100 | 72.7% | 38.1% | $73.39 | $32.93 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 191 | 71.7% | 51.9% | $80.73 | $25.59 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 247 | 71.4% | 58.7% | $84.38 | $21.94 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 583 | 70.1% | 88.6% | $100.26 | $6.06 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 618 | 70.5% | 91.7% | $101.93 | $4.39 |
KTOS highest implied-volatility contracts
| Type | Strike | Expiration | Volume | OI | IV | Bid | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALL | $40.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 1.3K | 396 | 73.3% | $18.10 | $18.80 |
| CALL | $40.00 | Jan 15, 2027 | 1.3K | 396 | 73.3% | $18.10 | $18.80 |
Top 2 contracts from the ORATS-sourced nightly scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.
Frequently asked KTOS expected move questions
- What is the current KTOS expected move?
- As of May 13, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 19.78% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $42.64 to $63.68 from the current $53.16. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KTOS expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.