What is the current KTOS expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 16.94% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $35.64 to $50.18 from the current $42.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KTOS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $8.01B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 4,300 people, carrying a beta of 1.11 to the broader market. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Led by Eric DeMarco, public since 1999-11-05.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $42.91
Expected Move: 16.9%
Implied High: $50.18
Implied Low: $35.64
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 16.94%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $35.64 to $50.18 from the current $42.91. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KTOS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. pricing an expected move of 16.94% from $42.91, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KTOS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 16.94%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $35.64 to $50.18. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KTOS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KTOS term-structure is in contango (slope 0.093), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 16.3%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KTOS range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing KTOS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KTOS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.68 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KTOS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $42.91 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	59.3%	4.4%	$44.79	$41.03
Oct 9, 2026	9	58.4%	9.2%	$46.85	$38.97
Oct 16, 2026	16	58.5%	12.2%	$48.17	$37.65
Oct 23, 2026	23	56.9%	14.3%	$49.04	$36.78
Oct 30, 2026	30	59.1%	16.9%	$50.18	$35.64
Nov 6, 2026	37	68.4%	21.8%	$52.25	$33.57
Nov 20, 2026	51	65.5%	24.5%	$53.42	$32.40
Jan 15, 2027	107	62.1%	33.6%	$57.34	$28.48
Feb 19, 2027	142	62.7%	39.1%	$59.69	$26.13
May 21, 2027	233	64.0%	51.1%	$64.85	$20.97
Dec 17, 2027	443	65.2%	71.8%	$73.73	$12.09
Jan 21, 2028	478	65.3%	74.7%	$74.98	$10.84
Jan 19, 2029	842	66.0%	100.2%	$85.92	$-0.10

KTOS highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$50.00	Oct 23, 2026	221	132	56.3%	$0.50	$0.70
PUT	$45.00	Jan 15, 2027	658	394	61.7%	$6.20	$6.80
CALL	$50.00	Oct 9, 2026	196	137	62.3%	$0.05	$0.15

Top 3 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked KTOS expected move questions

What is the current KTOS expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 16.94% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $35.64 to $50.18 from the current $42.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KTOS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.