What is the current KTOS expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 20.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $39.67 to $59.77 from the current $49.72. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KTOS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, with a market capitalization near $8.85B, listed on NASDAQ, employing roughly 4,000 people, carrying a beta of 1.03 to the broader market. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Led by Eric DeMarco, public since 1999-11-05.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $49.72
Expected Move: 20.2%
Implied High: $59.77
Implied Low: $39.67
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 20.21%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $39.67 to $59.77 from the current $49.72. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KTOS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. pricing an expected move of 20.21% from $49.72, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KTOS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 20.21%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $39.67 to $59.77. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KTOS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KTOS term-structure is in contango (slope 0.061), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing KTOS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KTOS put/call volume ratio currently at 0.38 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KTOS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $49.72 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	81.5%	6.0%	$52.72	$46.72
Jul 10, 2026	10	69.4%	11.5%	$55.43	$44.01
Jul 17, 2026	17	69.3%	15.0%	$57.16	$42.28
Jul 24, 2026	24	70.4%	18.1%	$58.70	$40.74
Jul 31, 2026	31	70.5%	20.5%	$59.94	$39.50
Aug 7, 2026	38	76.6%	24.7%	$62.01	$37.43
Aug 21, 2026	52	76.4%	28.8%	$64.06	$35.38
Nov 20, 2026	143	76.3%	47.8%	$73.47	$25.97
Jan 15, 2027	199	74.3%	54.9%	$77.00	$22.44
Feb 19, 2027	234	74.6%	59.7%	$79.42	$20.02
Dec 17, 2027	535	74.8%	90.6%	$94.75	$4.69
Jan 21, 2028	570	75.7%	94.6%	$96.75	$2.69

KTOS highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$54.00	Jul 2, 2026	689	107	86.2%	$0.10	$0.20

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked KTOS expected move questions

What is the current KTOS expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has an expected move of 20.21% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $39.67 to $59.77 from the current $49.72. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KTOS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KTOS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.