Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Trucking industry, with a market capitalization near $12.45B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 35,300 people, carrying a beta of 1.20 to the broader market. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Led by Adam W. Miller, public since 1994-10-25.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $78.16
- Expected Move
- 11.4%
- Implied High
- $87.08
- Implied Low
- $69.24
- Front DTE
- 17 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 11.41%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $69.24 to $87.08 from the current $78.16. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KNX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.41% from $78.16, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the KNX implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.41%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $69.24 to $87.08. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
KNX expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KNX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.030), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing KNX structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KNX put/call volume ratio currently at 3.03 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KNX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $78.16 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 39.8% | 8.6% | $84.87 | $71.45 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 42.8% | 16.2% | $90.79 | $65.53 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 143 | 42.3% | 26.5% | $98.85 | $57.47 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 42.0% | 28.7% | $100.63 | $55.69 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 41.8% | 30.9% | $102.28 | $54.04 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 234 | 42.1% | 33.7% | $104.51 | $51.81 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 42.2% | 52.7% | $119.38 | $36.94 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 899 | 41.8% | 65.6% | $129.43 | $26.89 |
Frequently asked KNX expected move questions
- What is the current KNX expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 11.41% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $69.24 to $87.08 from the current $78.16. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KNX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KNX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.