Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Trucking industry, with a market capitalization near $9.71B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 35,300 people, carrying a beta of 1.15 to the broader market. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Led by Adam W. Miller, public since 1994-10-25.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $69.30
- Expected Move
- 12.1%
- Implied High
- $77.66
- Implied Low
- $60.94
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 12.07%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $60.94 to $77.66 from the current $69.30. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KNX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. pricing an expected move of 12.07% from $69.30, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KNX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $69.30 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 42.1% | 12.8% | $78.20 | $60.40 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 40.7% | 16.9% | $81.02 | $57.58 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 42.3% | 21.9% | $84.49 | $54.11 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 41.7% | 30.0% | $90.09 | $48.51 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 41.1% | 31.7% | $91.26 | $47.34 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 41.7% | 34.2% | $92.98 | $45.62 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 41.9% | 54.4% | $107.02 | $31.58 |
Frequently asked KNX expected move questions
- What is the current KNX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 12.07% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $60.94 to $77.66 from the current $69.30. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KNX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KNX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.