What is the current KNX expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 11.30% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $56.73 to $71.17 from the current $63.95. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KNX expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KNX expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Trucking industry, with a market capitalization near $10.35B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 37,100 people, carrying a beta of 1.18 to the broader market. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Led by Adam W. Miller, public since 1994-10-25.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $63.95
Expected Move: 11.3%
Implied High: $71.17
Implied Low: $56.73
Front DTE: 16 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 11.30%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $56.73 to $71.17 from the current $63.95. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KNX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.30% from $63.95, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KNX implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.30%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $56.73 to $71.17. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KNX expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KNX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.001), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing KNX structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KNX put/call volume ratio currently at 0.14 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KNX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $63.95 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	16	39.4%	8.2%	$69.23	$58.67
Nov 20, 2026	51	39.5%	14.8%	$73.39	$54.51
Dec 18, 2026	79	38.4%	17.9%	$75.37	$52.53
Jan 15, 2027	107	37.5%	20.3%	$76.93	$50.97
Feb 19, 2027	142	37.7%	23.5%	$78.99	$48.91
May 21, 2027	233	38.7%	30.9%	$83.72	$44.18
Jan 21, 2028	478	38.3%	43.8%	$91.98	$35.92
Dec 15, 2028	807	38.4%	57.1%	$100.46	$27.44

KNX highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$70.00	Oct 16, 2026	5.6K	497	36.5%	$0.20	$0.60
PUT	$57.50	Oct 16, 2026	985	192	42.9%	$0.20	$0.25
CALL	$70.00	Oct 16, 2026	5.6K	497	36.5%	$0.20	$0.60
PUT	$50.00	Nov 20, 2026	565	122	45.7%	$0.25	$0.35

Top 4 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked KNX expected move questions

What is the current KNX expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an expected move of 11.30% over the next 16 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $56.73 to $71.17 from the current $63.95. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KNX expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KNX expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.