What is the current KKR expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 9.73% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $103.12 to $125.34 from the current $114.23. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KKR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KKR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $99.57B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 5,043 people, carrying a beta of 1.79 to the broader market. KKR & Co. Led by Joseph Y. Bae, public since 2010-07-15.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $114.23
Expected Move: 9.7%
Implied High: $125.34
Implied Low: $103.12
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 9.73%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $103.12 to $125.34 from the current $114.23. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KKR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With KKR & Co. Inc. pricing an expected move of 9.73% from $114.23, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KKR implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 9.73%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $103.12 to $125.34. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KKR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KKR term-structure is in contango (slope 0.007), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 18.1%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KKR range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing KKR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KKR put/call volume ratio currently at 1.75 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KKR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $114.23 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	35.4%	4.9%	$119.83	$108.63
Aug 28, 2026	14	35.8%	7.0%	$122.24	$106.22
Sep 4, 2026	21	35.3%	8.5%	$123.90	$104.56
Sep 11, 2026	28	33.7%	9.3%	$124.89	$103.57
Sep 18, 2026	35	34.4%	10.7%	$126.40	$102.06
Sep 25, 2026	42	35.4%	12.0%	$127.95	$100.51
Oct 2, 2026	49	36.1%	13.2%	$129.34	$99.12
Oct 16, 2026	63	35.6%	14.8%	$131.12	$97.34
Nov 20, 2026	98	37.4%	19.4%	$136.37	$92.09
Dec 18, 2026	126	37.8%	22.2%	$139.60	$88.86
Jan 15, 2027	154	38.7%	25.1%	$142.94	$85.52
Mar 19, 2027	217	39.5%	30.5%	$149.02	$79.44
May 21, 2027	280	40.6%	35.6%	$154.85	$73.61
Jun 17, 2027	307	40.2%	36.9%	$156.34	$72.12
Dec 17, 2027	490	40.6%	47.0%	$167.97	$60.49
Jan 21, 2028	525	40.1%	48.1%	$169.17	$59.29

Frequently asked KKR expected move questions

What is the current KKR expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 9.73% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $103.12 to $125.34 from the current $114.23. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KKR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KKR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.