KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $80.93B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 4,834 people, carrying a beta of 1.79 to the broader market. KKR & Co. Led by Joseph Y. Bae, public since 2010-07-15.
Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $91.83
- Expected Move
- 12.4%
- Implied High
- $103.24
- Implied Low
- $80.42
- Front DTE
- 31 days
As of Jun 30, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 12.42%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $80.42 to $103.24 from the current $91.83. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
KKR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With KKR & Co. Inc. pricing an expected move of 12.42% from $91.83, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
How to read the KKR implied-range chart
The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 12.42%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $80.42 to $103.24. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.
KKR expected move and event pricing
Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KKR term-structure is in contango (slope 0.008), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.
Sizing KKR structures to the expected move
Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KKR put/call volume ratio currently at 0.94 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for KKR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $91.83 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2 | 49.9% | 3.7% | $95.22 | $88.44 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10 | 42.0% | 7.0% | $98.21 | $85.45 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 17 | 41.9% | 9.0% | $100.13 | $83.53 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 24 | 40.4% | 10.4% | $101.34 | $82.32 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 31 | 43.7% | 12.7% | $103.53 | $80.13 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 38 | 44.5% | 14.4% | $105.02 | $78.64 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 52 | 43.6% | 16.5% | $106.94 | $76.72 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 80 | 41.7% | 19.5% | $109.76 | $73.90 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 171 | 41.8% | 28.6% | $118.10 | $65.56 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 199 | 41.6% | 30.7% | $120.04 | $63.62 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 262 | 42.8% | 36.3% | $125.13 | $58.53 |
| May 21, 2027 | 325 | 42.6% | 40.2% | $128.74 | $54.92 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 352 | 43.4% | 42.6% | $130.97 | $52.69 |
| Dec 17, 2027 | 535 | 43.3% | 52.4% | $139.97 | $43.69 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 570 | 43.6% | 54.5% | $141.86 | $41.80 |
Frequently asked KKR expected move questions
- What is the current KKR expected move?
- As of Jun 30, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 12.42% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.42 to $103.24 from the current $91.83. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the KKR expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is KKR expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.