What is the current KKR expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 11.70% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.93 to $102.37 from the current $91.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KKR expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KKR expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $81.98B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 5,043 people, carrying a beta of 1.79 to the broader market. KKR & Co. Led by Joseph Y. Bae, public since 2010-07-15.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $91.65
Expected Move: 11.7%
Implied High: $102.37
Implied Low: $80.93
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 11.70%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $80.93 to $102.37 from the current $91.65. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KKR Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With KKR & Co. Inc. pricing an expected move of 11.70% from $91.65, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KKR implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.70%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $80.93 to $102.37. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KKR expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KKR term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.017), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing KKR structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KKR put/call volume ratio currently at 2.31 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KKR derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $91.65 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	49.3%	3.6%	$94.99	$88.31
Oct 9, 2026	9	42.3%	6.6%	$97.74	$85.56
Oct 16, 2026	16	39.5%	8.3%	$99.23	$84.07
Oct 23, 2026	23	40.5%	10.2%	$100.97	$82.33
Oct 30, 2026	30	40.8%	11.7%	$102.37	$80.93
Nov 6, 2026	37	39.1%	12.4%	$103.06	$80.24
Nov 20, 2026	51	40.6%	15.2%	$105.56	$77.74
Dec 18, 2026	79	39.6%	18.4%	$108.53	$74.77
Jan 15, 2027	107	38.5%	20.8%	$110.75	$72.55
Mar 19, 2027	170	39.8%	27.2%	$116.54	$66.76
May 21, 2027	233	39.9%	31.9%	$120.87	$62.43
Jun 17, 2027	260	39.7%	33.5%	$122.36	$60.94
Sep 17, 2027	352	39.8%	39.1%	$127.47	$55.83
Dec 17, 2027	443	40.2%	44.3%	$132.24	$51.06
Jan 21, 2028	478	40.1%	45.9%	$133.71	$49.59
Jan 19, 2029	842	40.3%	61.2%	$147.75	$35.55

Frequently asked KKR expected move questions

What is the current KKR expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) has an expected move of 11.70% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.93 to $102.37 from the current $91.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KKR expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KKR expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.