What is the current KEY expected move?

As of Oct 13, 2026, KeyCorp (KEY) has an expected move of 3.33% over the next 38 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $19.28 to $20.60 from the current $19.94. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the KEY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is KEY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

KeyCorp (KEY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

KeyCorp (KEY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Regional industry, with a market capitalization near $21.49B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 17,883 people, carrying a beta of 1.09 to the broader market. KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Led by Christopher Marrott Gorman, public since 1987-11-05.

Snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026.

Spot Price: $19.94
Expected Move: 3.3%
Implied High: $20.60
Implied Low: $19.28
Front DTE: 38 days

As of Oct 13, 2026, KeyCorp (KEY) has an expected move of 3.33%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $19.28 to $20.60 from the current $19.94. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

KEY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With KeyCorp pricing an expected move of 3.33% from $19.94, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the KEY implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.33%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $19.28 to $20.60. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

KEY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. KEY term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.007), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 0.3%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical KEY range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing KEY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. KEY put/call volume ratio currently at 0.17 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for KEY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $19.94 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	3	11.6%	1.1%	$20.15	$19.73
Nov 20, 2026	38	27.8%	9.0%	$21.73	$18.15
Dec 18, 2026	66	27.1%	11.5%	$22.24	$17.64
Jan 15, 2027	94	26.9%	13.7%	$22.66	$17.22
Feb 19, 2027	129	27.2%	16.2%	$23.16	$16.72
Mar 19, 2027	157	27.6%	18.1%	$23.55	$16.33
Apr 16, 2027	185	27.8%	19.8%	$23.89	$15.99
May 21, 2027	220	28.3%	22.0%	$24.32	$15.56
Jun 17, 2027	247	28.5%	23.4%	$24.61	$15.27
Sep 17, 2027	339	29.2%	28.1%	$25.55	$14.33
Dec 17, 2027	430	29.9%	32.5%	$26.41	$13.47
Jan 21, 2028	465	30.3%	34.2%	$26.76	$13.12
Jan 19, 2029	829	30.5%	46.0%	$29.11	$10.77

Frequently asked KEY expected move questions

What is the current KEY expected move?: As of Oct 13, 2026, KeyCorp (KEY) has an expected move of 3.33% over the next 38 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $19.28 to $20.60 from the current $19.94. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the KEY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is KEY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.