What is the current JPM expected move?

As of Oct 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has an expected move of 5.98% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $322.74 to $363.78 from the current $343.26. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the JPM expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is JPM expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Diversified industry, with a market capitalization near $913.30B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 320,560 people, carrying a beta of 1.01 to the broader market. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Led by Jamie Dimon, public since 1980-03-17.

Snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $343.26
Expected Move: 6.0%
Implied High: $363.78
Implied Low: $322.74
Front DTE: 29 days

As of Oct 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has an expected move of 5.98%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $322.74 to $363.78 from the current $343.26. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

JPM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With JPMorgan Chase & Co. pricing an expected move of 5.98% from $343.26, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the JPM implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.98%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $322.74 to $363.78. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

JPM expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. JPM term-structure is in contango (slope 0.003), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 15.1%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical JPM range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing JPM structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. JPM put/call volume ratio currently at 1.01 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for JPM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $343.26 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 30, 2026	1	23.7%	1.2%	$347.52	$339.00
Nov 6, 2026	8	22.4%	3.3%	$354.64	$331.88
Nov 13, 2026	15	22.4%	4.5%	$358.85	$327.67
Nov 20, 2026	22	21.6%	5.3%	$361.46	$325.06
Nov 27, 2026	29	20.8%	5.9%	$363.39	$323.13
Dec 4, 2026	36	21.1%	6.6%	$366.01	$320.51
Dec 11, 2026	43	21.2%	7.3%	$368.24	$318.28
Dec 18, 2026	50	21.6%	8.0%	$370.70	$315.82
Jan 15, 2027	78	23.4%	10.8%	$380.39	$306.13
Mar 19, 2027	141	23.5%	14.6%	$393.40	$293.12
Jun 17, 2027	231	23.8%	18.9%	$408.25	$278.27
Sep 17, 2027	323	24.4%	23.0%	$422.05	$264.47
Dec 17, 2027	414	24.9%	26.5%	$434.29	$252.23
Jan 21, 2028	449	25.2%	27.9%	$439.20	$247.32
Dec 15, 2028	778	25.5%	37.2%	$471.05	$215.47
Jan 19, 2029	813	25.5%	38.1%	$473.90	$212.62

JPM highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$345.00	Oct 30, 2026	1.1K	2.7K	22.8%	$0.88	$1.05

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked JPM expected move questions

What is the current JPM expected move?: As of Oct 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has an expected move of 5.98% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $322.74 to $363.78 from the current $343.26. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the JPM expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is JPM expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.