What is the current JPM expected move?

As of May 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has an expected move of 6.95% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $278.51 to $320.13 from the current $299.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the JPM expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is JPM expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks - Diversified industry, with a market capitalization near $801.92B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 318,477 people, carrying a beta of 1.02 to the broader market. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Led by James Dimon, public since 1980-03-17.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $299.32
Expected Move: 7.0%
Implied High: $320.13
Implied Low: $278.51
Front DTE: 28 days

As of May 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has an expected move of 6.95%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $278.51 to $320.13 from the current $299.32. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

JPM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With JPMorgan Chase & Co. pricing an expected move of 6.95% from $299.32, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the JPM implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.95%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $278.51 to $320.13. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

JPM expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. JPM term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.004), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing JPM structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. JPM put/call volume ratio currently at 0.47 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for JPM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $299.32 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jun 5, 2026	7	24.6%	3.4%	$309.52	$289.12
Jun 12, 2026	14	25.0%	4.9%	$313.98	$284.66
Jun 18, 2026	20	24.6%	5.8%	$316.56	$282.08
Jun 26, 2026	28	24.4%	6.8%	$319.55	$279.09
Jul 2, 2026	34	24.0%	7.3%	$321.25	$277.39
Jul 10, 2026	42	24.2%	8.2%	$323.89	$274.75
Jul 17, 2026	49	26.8%	9.8%	$328.71	$269.93
Aug 21, 2026	84	26.5%	12.7%	$337.37	$261.27
Sep 18, 2026	112	26.2%	14.5%	$342.76	$255.88
Oct 16, 2026	140	26.8%	16.6%	$349.00	$249.64
Nov 20, 2026	175	26.6%	18.4%	$354.45	$244.19
Dec 18, 2026	203	26.7%	19.9%	$358.92	$239.72
Jan 15, 2027	231	26.6%	21.2%	$362.66	$235.98
Mar 19, 2027	294	26.3%	23.6%	$369.97	$228.67
Jun 17, 2027	384	26.6%	27.3%	$380.98	$217.66
Dec 17, 2027	567	27.1%	33.8%	$400.42	$198.22
Jan 21, 2028	602	27.3%	35.1%	$404.26	$194.38
Dec 15, 2028	931	27.5%	43.9%	$430.78	$167.86

Frequently asked JPM expected move questions

What is the current JPM expected move?: As of May 29, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has an expected move of 6.95% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $278.51 to $320.13 from the current $299.32. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the JPM expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is JPM expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.