ICL Group Ltd (ICL) Max Pain Analysis
Max pain is the strike price where aggregate option buyer payout is minimized at expiration. It represents the price at which option writers retain the most premium.
ICL Group Ltd (ICL) operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically the Agricultural Inputs industry, with a market capitalization near $8.78B, listed on NYSE, employing roughly 12,349 people, carrying a beta of 0.88 to the broader market. ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. Led by Elad Aharonson, public since 2005-03-22.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $6.45
- Max Pain Strike
- $7.50
- Total OI
- 12.3K
As of May 15, 2026, ICL Group Ltd (ICL) max pain sits at $7.50, which is above the current spot price of $6.45 (16.3% away). Spot sits 16.3% above max pain - the gap is wide enough that the pinning effect alone is unlikely to close it; expect catalyst flow, positioning unwinds, or rebalancing to drive the actual price path before any expiration pull. ICL is a low-priced underlying (spot $6.45), where $0.50 or finer strike spacing increases the number of viable pin candidates and dampens the dominant-strike effect. Total open interest across the listed chain is comparatively thin (12.3K contracts), so single-strike pinning is less reliable than it is for high-OI names. ICL is currently in positive dealer gamma ($90.8K), the regime that mechanically reinforces pinning by inducing dealers to buy weakness and sell strength near heavy-OI strikes. Max pain identifies the strike at which the aggregate dollar value of all outstanding options contracts would expire with the least total intrinsic value, a gravitational reference rather than a price target.
ICL Strategy Implications at the Current Max Pain Level
With spot 16.3% from the $7.50 max-pain level and ICL Group Ltd in a positive-gamma regime, where dealer hedging mechanically pulls spot toward heavy-OI strikes, strategy selection turns on cycle position and dealer positioning. Iron condors and credit spreads centered near the max-pain strike capture the typical end-of-cycle convergence when the regime supports pinning; ratio backspreads or directional debit structures fit names where catalyst flow is likely to overwhelm the hedging-driven pull. The gamma-exposure page shows the per-strike dealer book that determines whether hedging will reinforce or fight the pin.
Learn how max pain is reported and how to read the data →
Frequently asked ICL max pain analysis questions
- What is the current ICL max pain strike?
- As of May 15, 2026, ICL Group Ltd (ICL) max pain sits at $7.50, which is 16.3% above the current spot price of $6.45. Max pain identifies the strike at which aggregate option-buyer payouts at expiration are minimized; it is a gravitational reference, not a price target. A 16.3% gap is wide enough that the pinning effect alone is unlikely to close it; expect catalyst flow, positioning unwinds, or rebalancing to drive the price path before any expiration pull.
- Does ICL pin to its max pain strike at expiration?
- ICL is currently in positive dealer gamma, the regime that mechanically reinforces pinning. Dealers hedging long-gamma books buy weakness and sell strength near high-OI strikes, which pulls spot toward those levels into expiration. Total open interest across ICL (12.3K contracts) is one input to how plausible a clean pin is - heavier total OI concentrated at fewer strikes raises the probability; thin OI spread across many strikes lowers it. Pinning is strongest in heavily-traded names with large open-interest concentrations at high-OI strikes during the final week of an OPEX cycle. Whether ICL actually pins on a given expiration depends on the OI distribution, the dealer-gamma sign, and the absence of catalyst-driven moves that overwhelm hedging-driven flow.
- How is ICL max pain calculated?
- Max pain is computed by summing the dollar value of all in-the-money options at each candidate settlement strike across listed expirations, then selecting the strike that minimizes total intrinsic-value payout to option buyers. The calculation uses the full open-interest distribution and weighs both calls and puts. ICL put/call OI ratio is 0.05 - call-heavy, which biases the max-pain calculation toward strikes above current spot when the call OI concentrates there.