HUBG Butterfly Strategy
HUBG (Hub Group, Inc.), in the Industrials sector, (Integrated Freight & Logistics industry), listed on NASDAQ.
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics. The ITS segment offers intermodal and dedicated trucking services, including freight transportation, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking services. The Logistics segment provides transportation management, freight brokerage, shipment optimization, load consolidation, mode selection, carrier management, load planning and execution, warehousing, fulfillment, cross-docking, and consolidation and final mile delivery services. It also provides trucking transportation services, including dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, and refrigerated and flatbed services. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated a fleet of approximately 2,300 tractors, 3,200 employee drivers, 500 independent owner-operators, and 4,700 trailers; and owned approximately 50,000 dry and 53-foot containers, as well as 900 refrigerated 53-foot containers.
HUBG (Hub Group, Inc.) trades in the Industrials sector, specifically Integrated Freight & Logistics, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.65B, a trailing P/E of 25.02, a beta of 1.24 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 32.46-53.26, average daily share volume of 727K, a public-listing history dating back to 1996, approximately 7K full-time employees. These structural characteristics shape how HUBG stock options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 1.24 places HUBG roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline. HUBG pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a butterfly on HUBG?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current HUBG snapshot
As of June 30, 2026, spot at $43.70, ATM IV 38.50%, IV rank 17.71%, expected move 11.04%. The butterfly on HUBG below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 17-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on HUBG specifically: HUBG IV at 38.50% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a HUBG butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 11.04% (roughly $4.82 on the underlying). The 17-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated HUBG expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on HUBG should anchor to the underlying notional of $43.70 per share and to the trader's directional view on HUBG stock.
HUBG butterfly setup
The HUBG butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With HUBG near $43.70, the first option leg uses a $41.52 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed HUBG chain at a 17-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 HUBG shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $41.52 | N/A |
| Sell 2 | Call | $43.70 | N/A |
| Buy 1 | Call | $45.89 | N/A |
HUBG butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- N/A
- Max Profit (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Max Loss (per contract)
- Unbounded
- Breakeven(s)
- None on modeled curve
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- N/A
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
HUBG butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on HUBG. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
When traders use butterfly on HUBG
Butterflies on HUBG are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect HUBG to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
HUBG thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for HUBG extends from approximately $38.88 on the downside to $48.52 on the upside. A HUBG long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if HUBG settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current HUBG IV rank near 17.71% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on HUBG at 38.50%. As a Industrials name, HUBG options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to HUBG-specific events.
HUBG butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. HUBG positions also carry Industrials sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move HUBG alongside the broader basket even when HUBG-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current HUBG chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on HUBG?
- A butterfly on HUBG is the butterfly strategy applied to HUBG (stock). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With HUBG stock trading near $43.70, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed HUBG chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are HUBG butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the HUBG butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 38.50%), the computed maximum profit is unbounded per contract and the computed maximum loss is unbounded per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a HUBG butterfly?
- The breakeven for the HUBG butterfly priced on this page is no defined breakeven on the modeled curve at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current HUBG market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 11.04%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on HUBG?
- Butterflies on HUBG are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect HUBG to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current HUBG implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- HUBG ATM IV is at 38.50% with IV rank near 17.71%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.